From Soualiga Newsday Sint Maarten

SINT MAARTEN/CARIBBEAN – Caribbean Tropical Development is possible during the first half of May, according to Crown Weather. “The long range operational GFS model and its ensemble members continue to strongly hint at the potential for tropical development to occur somewhere in the Caribbean during the first two weeks of May.”

Crown Weather adds, “…the idea of tropical development posed by the GFS model guidance may not be so farfetched. The reason why is because the long range weather pattern could become favorable for tropical development in the Caribbean as we get into early May.

“First things first though – Do not concentrate on exactly where the GFS model is forecasting tropical development to occur in the Caribbean. The reason why is because the area of the Caribbean the GFS model is forecasting tropical development to occur will likely change often over the next couple of weeks. For instance last night’s GFS model forecast showed tropical development in the eastern Caribbean that impacts the Lesser Antilles around May 6th to May 9th and also eastern Pacific tropical development during the week of May 8th. Fast forward to the most recent forecast of the GFS model which now forecasts tropical development in the western Caribbean during the week of May 8th.

“The GFS ensemble model guidance is of no help as it forecasts overall lowering barometric pressures and increased storminess across the entire Caribbean during early May. It does forecast that the western Caribbean and the easternmost Caribbean are areas that may be problem areas starting around May 5th and continuing into the week of May 8th.

“Turning to the other model guidance – The Canadian model guidance is now starting to show the development of low pressure in the southwestern Caribbean in about 10 days from now (around May 4th into May 5th). The European model guidance has yet to come on board with this type of storminess and lowering pressures over the western Caribbean.

“My thoughts are that I do think that the overall weather pattern starting between May 5th and May 8th and continuing until about May 15th will be favorable for tropical development across some part of the Caribbean. In addition, I think that there is a higher chance that we will see tropical development in the western Caribbean rather than the eastern Caribbean.

“So, all-in-all, I think there is a 5 to 10 percent chance that we will see tropical development in the western Caribbean between May 8th and May 15th. It needs to be pointed out that it wouldn’t take much of a change in the weather pattern for this tropical development to occur in the eastern Pacific instead. With that said, if we start to see consistency and support in the weather data that points to western Caribbean tropical development between May 8th and May 15th, then the chances for tropical development would need to be increased.”

For more on this story go to: http://www.soualiganewsday.com/local/soualiga-news/item/13344-could-we-see-caribbean-tropical-development-during-the-first-half-of-may.html