Dr. Stuart Weiss: COVID-19 Update Friday 31-July-2020
Dr. Stuart Weiss, FACEP, FAAP, CBCP
July 31, 2020
Today’s topics: Overall CoViD-19 status, Vaccine likely by early 2021, Testing results, Summer camp issues, New Jersey’s creep upward in new cases
| CoViD-19 Status Perhaps there is some good news on the horizon. Although the US new case numbers are still incredibly high, the rolling 14 day average actually dropped by 1%. In contrast, deaths, which as you may remember, lag behind new cases by 6-8 weeks, are still rising and the rolling 14 day average is up 57%. Yesterday, we have 1,237 Americans die of SARS-CoV-2. The CDC predicted just under 175,000 by the third week of August. Today, Dr. Fauci was on capitol hill testifying and when asked why Europe has so many less cases than the US, he replied that when Europe shut down, they did an almost complete shutdown and stayed that way until their new daily case numbers were down to tens or hundreds of cases per day. Here is the US, during our shutdown, only half the country actually shut down and we went to reopening when we still had 20,000 new cases a day. We never let the first wave die down. And people went on to not follow basic public health practices to prevent spread. Americans are losing faith in our ability to resume normal activities. CIDRAP News reports today on a study earlier this month that showed less Americans will now send their kids to school, less would attend a concert if there was one and less will fly on an airplane. Vaccine likely by early 2021 according to Dr. Fauci Today, Dr. Fauci spent three hours testifying in front of Congress. He optimistically reported that there should be a vaccine available in early 2021. He reported that he reviewed some good data from the Moderna vaccine and he was secure in his opinion that the US would develop one of its own vaccine candidates and wouldn’t need to rely on an international vaccine candidate. He went on to say that we shouldn’t expect mass vaccination right away. There will be a priority list of critical workers and vulnerable people at first. For planning purposes, I am recommending that people think in terms of vaccine being given to the general population next summer. That is only if vaccine trials continue to go well. We still have a long way to go the have a safe and effective vaccine that we want to administer to our entire population. CoViD-19 testing results Also at the hearing today was Admiral Brett Giroir who is the administration “testing czar”. He testified that it is not possible to get test results to Americans within 48-72 hours. He said that the latest government data shows that about 75% of test results are coming back within 5 days. The remainder are taking longer. As a side note, to help with the testing backlog here in NYC, I am planning on opening an office where people can get 15 minute rapid testing. Waiting 5-7 days for test results makes the test almost useless for people to make informed decisions. Summer Camp CoViD-19 nightmare Today, in the MMWR (Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report), which is a summary document of important disease information put out by the CDC each week, they reported a high attack rate of SARS-CoV-2 at an overnight summer camp in Georgia. The camp involved was following the Governor’s executive order that allowed overnight camps to open as of May 31st. The camp adopted most of the CDC recommendations for summer camps but did not require face coverings for campers (only staff) and did not open windows and doors for increased ventilation of the buildings. In addition, the kids engaged in various indoor and outdoor activities which included “vigorous” singing and loud cheering. Clearly, the camp management did not understand that they were engaging in some of the highest risk activities possible and not taking all the necessary precautions. The results are striking and consistent with current thinking on high risk activities. There were 597 Georgia residents at the camp (I don’t know how many non-Georgia people were there in staff and campers). There were test results available on 344 of them (even though it was recommended that all people get tested, negative results are inconsistently reported in Georgia). Within these test results, 76% were positive. If you add back in the remaining tests and assume they were negative, the overall attack rate is 44%. Within staff, the attack rate was 56%! These are enormously high attack rates. These high attack rates were consistent across all age groups showing that kids can catch SARS-CoV-2 and can spread it as well. The authors conclude that large groups of kids sleeping in the same cabin (with windows and doors closed) and engaging in regular singing and cheering likely contributed to the transmission. If you are planning to send your kid to summer sleepaway camp, please have a chat with the camp director and make sure they are following all of the latest recommendations. Make sure the camp is not ignoring the most important risks like the camp in Georgia did. Also, you should assume your kid might be infected when they get home and either get them tested or keep them away from vulnerable people for 14 days or both. NJ slowly creeping up in a slow and concerning fashion, the 7 day rolling average of new cases in New Jersey has been slowly increasing for the past week. New York has thankfully remained stable. Even though both NY and NJ have mandatory self quarantine after returning from a number of hot spot states, it is inevitable that new cases will increase in the northeast at some point. We will have to watch this closely. Be well and take care of yourself. There are storm clouds on the horizon. –Dr. Stu |
COVID-19 HEADLINES FOR TODAY
| Coronavirus update for July 31, 2020 World Wide Updates Spanish economy enters recession after historic Q2 fall Community infections in England rising for first time since May, says UK PM More than 100 coronavirus cases in Hong Kong for 10th day in a row Argentina extends quarantine measures in capital’s metropolitan area through mid-August Kenya surpasses 20,000 Covid-19 cases Record number of new Covid-19 cases reported to WHO in last 24 hours Peru extends state of emergency and localized quarantine measures until August 31 Vietnam records its first Covid-19 death England is putting “brakes” on next phase of reopening, says PM Johnson GlaxoSmithKline and Sanofi to partner on $2 billion coronavirus vaccine contract Belgium shows 62% weekly rise in infections Formula One driver Sergio Perez tests positive for Covid-19 and will miss British Grand Prix German center for disease prevention lists three Spanish regions as “high-risk areas” Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam postpones Legislative Council elections Brazil’s Bolsonaro says he has ‘mold’ in his lungs as his wife tests positive for Covid-19 Europe suffers record 11.9% GDP slump — the worst on record Call for joint military drills to be cancelled as Covid-19 cases linked to US troops in South Korea Tokyo sees second straight day of highest daily infections French economy shrinks 13.8% in Q2, as coronavirus lockdown hits Morocco sees highest daily jump in Covid-19 cases Vietnam went nearly 100 days with no new cases. Today, it reported its highest single-day spike Japan sees highest daily increase in Covid-19 cases for third day in a row Australian state of Victoria surpasses 10,000 Covid-19 cases China reports more than 100 new Covid-19 cases for third day in a row New restrictions issued in Northern England after rise in coronavirus cases Four crew members of Norwegian cruise ship hospitalized with Covid-19 Another Brazilian minister tests positive for coronavirus Germany will offer free coronavirus tests to all travelers entering the country Lithuania to impose quarantine on arrivals from France Total Cases Worldwide: 17,666,000 Total Deaths Worldwide: 680,221 Total Recovered: 11,057,175 US Updates Missouri reports roughly 1,500 new Covid-19 cases CDC’s ensemble forecast now projects more than 173,000 US coronavirus deaths by August 22 Covid-19 positivity rate increases in Massachusetts following large gatherings, governor says Oklahoma reports its lowest total number of positive Covid-19 cases in over a week Covid-19 outbreak at Georgia camp is a warning for what could happen when schools reopen, CDC says Illinois reports nearly 2,000 Covid-19 cases in 24-hour period Salt Lake City schools will begin the year remotely NIH invests $248.7 million to fund technology that could improve Covid-19 testing Florida sets new record for Covid-19 deaths for 4th straight day MLB Cardinals positive Covid-19 cases force game postponement, according to reports New York City infection rate has to be below 3% to reopen schools, mayor says Trump repeats falsehood that US has more cases because of more testing Unemployment benefits expire at midnight, and lawmakers are no closer to a stimulus deal It’s “impossible to predict” how long the pandemic will last, says Fauci California gym that ignored shutdown order now linked to virus cluster Plasma from coronavirus survivors reduced deaths by 57%, studies show Operation Warp Speed leader says he expects coronavirus vaccine to be highly effective, “in the 90%” range Key coronavirus model projects 230,822 deaths in US by November Trump calls for extension of unemployment benefits as Congress debates next stimulus bill Student tests positive for Covid-19 on first day of school in Indiana People growing less confident about returning to daily activities amid recent COVID-19 surges, survey finds Airbnb shuts down 35 New Jersey party houses over COVID concerns after police busted 700 people at one bash Coronavirus outbreak across USC’s fraternity row leaves at least 40 infected Microsoft extends remote work to US employees through January First Covid-19-related teen death reported in California Total US cases: 4,690,356 Total US deaths: 156,265Total Recovered: 2,305,798 Total Tested in US: 54,466,962 Total cases in CA: 498,738 Total deaths in CA: 9,076 Total cases in FL: 470,386 Total deaths in FL: 6,843 Total cases in NY: 443,547 Total deaths in NY: 32,762 Total cases in TX: 435,604 Total deaths in TX: 6,703 |
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