Dr. Stuart Weiss: COVID-19 Update Wednesday 31-Mar-2021
By Dr. Stuart Weiss, Intelligent Crowd Solutions
Rapid Test Center of New York
Dr. Stuart Weiss, FACEP, FAAP, CBCP
March 31, 2021
CoViD-19 News and Information you can trust. Welcome new readers from the Rapid Test Center.
Topics: Entering 4th Wave, Indoor Spaces
| A Fourth Wave It looks like we are firmly entering a fourth wave here in the US and the world is definitely getting worse. Lets look at why I say that: 1. Here in the US, the 14 day average of new cases is up again. Now it is up 20% over the past two weeks 2. Outbreaks in the Northeast and Upper Midwest continue to grow 3. According to the NY Times, 37 states have either high number of new cases and are staying high or lower number of new cases and rising. 4. The number of hospitalizations over the past two weeks is now flat instead of falling. 5. Deaths are still falling but that is a lagging indicator that may lag behind hospitalizations by a few weeks. We have several factors working against us at the moment: 1. Governors are relaxing CoViD-19 restrictions even in places where cases are rising 2. The B.1.1.7 variants is continuing to gain strength towards becoming the dominant variant 3. All the spring break young people are returning home and bringing CoViD-19 with them and people in general are traveling more. Now lets talk about the world. Remember, a new variant anywhere is a new variant everywhere in just a few short weeks. If an escape variant happens anywhere on the planet it will spread everywhere quickly. 1. The 14 day rolling average of new cases in the world is up 32%. This is the fifth week in a row that case numbers have risen 2. The 14 day rolling average of deaths is up 16%. This is the second week in a row that deaths have risen worldwide. 3. The five countries reporting the most cases were Brazil, The US, India, France and Poland. India reported a 55% increase in new cases. In South America, the end of the summer season is now leading to increasing cases across many parts of South America with some countries experiencing their worst outbreaks. 4. Variants are spreading across many countries. The B.1.1.7 (UK) variant is in 130 countries. The B.1.351 (South African) increased in 5 countries to 80 countries and the P.1 (Brazilian) variant is in 45 countries. Remember that while the B.1.1.7 is more contagious, the vaccine work well against it. That is not the case with the other variants. Lastly, the UN COVAX program that was supposed to ensure that vaccine was spread to all countries is not working. Many poor countries do not have vaccine and may not have it for months or years. Here is the bottom line. This virus is here to stay for a while, essentially years to come. We may get a handle on this in the US with people vaccinated but it will still be spreading in other parts of the world. We will most likely need booster shots as new variants develop. The question for the short term is how bad will it get in the US over the next few weeks. Will we have a sharp spike in new cases and end up back in the bad days of last year or will we escape that due to our vaccine programs. We will see over the next 3-4 weeks. Indoor Spaces Indoor spaces still remain the most dangerous places to be. There is a good article in Nature magazine outlining the dangers of poor indoor ventilation. One of the researchers went around with a portable CO2 (carbon dioxide) detector. The level of CO2 in a room is a good indicator for air quality. Because we breath out CO2 when we exhale, if it builds up, then the room has poor ventilation. Outside, a normal value is 250-400 parts per million (ppm). Air with 1000 ppm is considered poor quality. At 2000 ppm you get headaches, sleepiness, loss of concentration, maybe some nausea. The researcher found several seemingly nice looking indoor spaces that had 2000 ppm of CO2. High CO2 means poor air exchanges and higher risk for CoViD-19 to spread. Remember that the SARS-CoV-2 virus spread via respiratory droplets and aerosol particles which can float in the air for many feet in a poorly ventilated space. Here is the problem. We are spending huge sums of money disinfecting surfaces when surface contact is not a main way this disease spreads. We are not spending money to fix the main problem, aerosol spread. Just as CO2 can build up, aerosol particles with virus in it can build up as well. Unfortunately, there are no air standards yet although the World Health Organization put out a guide to indoor spaces on March 1st. While there is no standard, if you are concerned about your indoor spaces, get a cheap CO2 monitor and measure the ppm levels. See if they are 250-400 ppm. When you are eligible, get your self vaccinated so we can get through this together. Dr. Stu Weiss |
COVID-19 HEADLINES FOR TODAY
| Coronavirus update for March 31, 2021 World Wide Updates French President calls for another national lockdown as Covid-19 cases surge Chinese city on border with Myanmar goes into lockdown Yemen receives first Covid-19 vaccines as infections surge European Union regulator stands behind use of AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccine Austria likely to order 1 million Sputnik V vaccines “as early as next week” Iraq reports highest number of daily Covid-19 cases since start of pandemic Chinese scientist calls for wider investigation into the Covid-19 origin Pfizer says it has met its end-of-March commitment of 120 million doses ready to ship to US Brazil detects new Covid variant similar to South African one Cuba reports record number of Covid-19 cases German city of Hamburg orders overnight curfew to control spread of coronavirus AstraZeneca vaccine safe and effective, WHO official reiterates after Germany decision Spain is seeing a clear and slow increase in Covid-19 cases, health minister warns Pfizer will produce ready-to-use Covid-19 vaccine in second half of 2021, executive says Russia registers world’s first Covid-19 vaccine for animals US and Germany are the biggest investors in Covid-19 vaccine research and development French President Macron under pressure to lock down as Covid-19 hospitalizations soar Hungary reports record number of COVID deaths despite high vaccination rates Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine is 100% effective in 12-15 year olds, clinical trial results show  China accuses US of “political manipulation” and lashes out at countries that criticized WHO report UK minister says AstraZeneca’s shot is “safe” as Germany limits its use as a precautionary measure India’s Covid-19 surge has gone from “bad to worse,” health official says Italy makes coronavirus vaccines mandatory for health care workers China accused of withholding data from WHO coronavirus origins investigation in Wuhan France announces new COVID-19 lockdown with 3-week nationwide school closure and domestic travel ban Brazil records almost 58,000 deaths in a month Finland withdraws Covid lockdown plan after it was deemed unconstitutional Sweden postpones easing of some Covid curbs amid third wave Total Cases Worldwide: 129,384,230 Total Deaths Worldwide: 2,825,926 Total Recovered: 104,261,701 US Updates Kentucky will open vaccine eligibility to people 16 and older next week White House announces 3 more mass vaccination sites Nursing homes see a 96% decline in Covid-19 cases since vaccines rolled out in late December Trial of Moderna’s variant-specific Covid-19 vaccine has begun, US health institute says Johnson & Johnson says it met goal to deliver 20 million Covid-19 vaccine doses to US government by March Michigan plant packaging Johnson & Johnson vaccine gets OK to work in Europe University of Pittsburgh orders shelter-in-place for all students due to rising Covid-19 cases CDC ensemble forecast estimates a decline in projected deaths by April 24 About 1 in 6 US residents are fully vaccinated against Covid-19, CDC data shows CDC releases new Covid-19 guidance for adult day service centers White House pleads with governors and mayors to maintain or reinstate mask mandates to “save lives” New York City has administered 4 million Covid-19 vaccinations, mayor says US watchdog calls for greater transparency on coronavirus data from government agencies Delta will resume selling middle seats on May 1 as US travel industry retires many pandemic-era practices Michigan governor says “high proportion” of Covid-19 variants contributing to state’s growing case numbers More than 12,000 cases of variants have been reported in the US Pfizer trial data likely a “green light” to vaccinate kids aged 12 to 15 in the US, expert says White House says Americans deserve “better information” as allies criticize WHO coronavirus report CDC warned the UK variant would become dominant by March, and there’s evidence it has Oakland Zoo to begin vaccinating animals most at risk for COVID this summer Total US cases: 31,151,843 Total US deaths: 564,901 Total Recovered: 23,663,377 Total Tested in US: 391,114,976 Total cases in CA: 3,666,748 Total deaths in CA: 58,789 Total cases in TX: 2,792,858 Total deaths in TX: 48,479 Total cases in FL: 2,057,735 Total deaths in FL: 33,450 Total cases in NY: 1,913,677 Total deaths in NY: 50,584 Total cases in IL: 1,244,585 Total deaths in IL: 23,579 Total cases in GA: 1,059,548 Total death in GA: 19,055 Total Vaccines Administered in US: 150,273,292 |
