ECLAC forecasts that regional GDP will grow just 1.1% in 2014.

(December 2, 2014) Economic growth in Latin America and the Caribbean will recover in 2015 and reach 2.2% on average, according to new estimates unveiled today by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC).

According to the regional United Nations organization, this moderate rise will take place in the context of the global economy’s slow and heterogeneous recovery, with downward pressure on commodity prices and little dynamism in the region’s external demand as well as an increase in financial uncertainty.

The evolution of the global economy will have different impacts among countries and sub-regions in 2015, as it did throughout 2014. Central America plus Haiti and the Spanish-speaking Caribbean are expected to grow at a rate of 4.1%, South America at 1.8%, and the English-speaking Caribbean at 2.2%.

The countries leading the regional expansion next year will be Panama, with an increase in its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 7.0%, Bolivia (5.5%), Peru, the Dominican Republic and Nicaragua (5.0%).

In 2014, average regional growth was just 1.1%, marking the smallest expansion since 2009. The region’s performance shows great heterogeneity among countries and sub-regions: Central America plus Haiti and the Spanish-speaking Caribbean grew 3.7%, South America 0.7%, and the English-speaking Caribbean 1.9%.

In fiscal terms, Latin America will register a slight increase in its deficit to 2.7% of GDP in 2014 from 2.4% in 2013, while the Caribbean will reduce its deficit to 3.9% in 2014 from 4.1% last year. In addition, the public debt of the region’s countries will remain at low and stable levels, averaging around 32% of GDP.

Meanwhile, accumulated regional inflation in the 12 months to October was 9.4% on average, with a very diverse performance among countries, and the urban open unemployment rate will register a fresh decline to 6.0% from 6.2% the previous year, despite the weak job creation resulting from low economic growth.

The deceleration in investment observed since 2011, and which showed a roughly 3.5% contraction during 2014, is an important factor in the decline of the GDP growth rate.

These figures were presented during a press conference at ECLAC’s headquarters in Santiago, Chile, by the Commission’s Executive Secretary, Alicia Bárcena, and are part of the annual report Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean 2014, which will be published soon.

“To invigorate economic growth and stop deceleration in the global economy’s current context entails significant challenges for the region,” Alicia Bárcena said during the press conference. “Among these, it is necessary to revive domestic demand prioritizing the dynamic of investment. This should impact positively on the economies’ productivity and competitiveness,” she added.

To that effect, ECLAC proposes expanding the countercyclical macroeconomic architecture to incorporate mechanisms that protect investment financing, particularly that of infrastructure, through the different phases of the cycle.

At the same time, regional integration must play a leading role in increasing regional aggregate demand, supporting progress on productivity by including countries’ companies in regional value chains, and strengthening the region’s ability to handle external shocks through financial integration.

IMAGE: ECLAC report Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean was launched in Santiago by ECLAC’s Executive Secretary, Alicia Bárcena (center). Photo: Carlos Vera/CEPAL