By Courtney Spamer, AccuWeather meteorologist & Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

Laura erupted into a hurricane early Tuesday morning as the storm moved away from Cuba and over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. AccuWeather forecasters expect the storm to rapidly strengthen as it charges toward the Gulf Coast. When Laura makes landfall later this week, it could be a Category 3 hurricane — the first of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season.

Laura was upgraded to a Category 1 hurricane Tuesday morning and is forecast to reach major hurricane status as at least a Category 3, prior to landfall. A major hurricane has maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph. As of Tuesday afternoon, Laura was moving west-northwest at 16 mph and was about 560 miles southeast of Galveston, Texas, and 525 miles southeast of Lake Charles, Louisiana, according to the National Hurricane Center. Sustained wind speeds were just above hurricane status at 75 mph.

The storm is rated a 3 on the AccuWeather RealImpact Scale for Hurricanes, a new method the company introduced in 2019 to better assess the overall potential damage a storm could cause than the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, which only factors in wind impacts.

The hurricane has the potential to cause significant damage and widespread power outages in southwestern Louisiana and along the upper Texas coast. Roads may be impassable and the power could be out for days after the storm.

As a result of the forecast, hurricane warnings were in effect for places along the Gulf Coast from San Luis Pass Texas to Intracoastal City, Louisiana.

“At this time we feel the greatest threat to lives and property from Laura is from storm surge flooding,” AccuWeather’s top hurricane expert, Dan Kottlowski, said.

The coastal inundation from the storm surge could approach 15 feet around Cameron, Louisiana. A storm surge of that magnitude would be high enough to enter the second story of a structure located along the coast. Waters will begin to rise and some coastal roads can become flooded well in advance of the center of the storm’s arrival on the coast.

Storm surge flooding can occur as far to the the east as coastal Mississippi and as far to the southwest as Galveston.

Impact could be similar to slightly larger Hurricane Rita from 2005, which was the last major hurricane to hit near the border of Louisiana and Texas. Rita produced a maximum storm surge of 18 feet. Hurricane Ike from 2008 hit farther south on Galveston Island, Texas, as a Category 2 storm.

“AccuWeather estimates the total damage and economic loss caused by Laura will be $25-30 billion and could be higher should it shift further west closer to Houston, the fourth largest U.S. city,” according to AccuWeather founder and CEO Joel N. Myers. The estimate is based on an analysis incorporating independent methods to evaluate all direct and indirect impacts of the storm and is based on a variety of sources, statistics and unique techniques AccuWeather uses to estimate damage.

Meteorologists are urging all residents are to pay attention to evacuation orders from local officials.

The first mandatory evacuation order was issued Tuesday ahead of the storm’s arrival. Galveston Mayor Craig Brown signed a mandatory evacuation Tuesday as Laura barreled toward the Texas coastline. The mandatory evacuation went into effect at 6 a.m. local time on Tuesday, and the city has urged residents to leave the island within six hours of the order being signed and to take with them “all family members and pets.”

Elsewhere along the Gulf Coast, residents in Louisiana prepared for the storm byboarding up windows. In Cameron, Louisiana, a coastal town about 135 miles east of Houston, Texas, residents were seen evacuating on Monday. Oil refineries across the Gulf were shut down amid all of the tropical activity over the Gulf — first from Marco and later from Laura.

“Another concern, high on our list as a significant threat, is from tornadoes,” Kottlowski said.

The tornado risk will increase just prior to landfall and remain a significant threat perhaps up to 48 hours after landfall near and east of the track of the center of the storm, mainly over the lower Mississippi Valley.

Laura left behind damage and flooding while it pushed across the northern Caribbean as a tropical storm. At least 13 deaths have been blamed on Laura, four of which occurred in the Dominican Republic and nine in Haiti. Several remained missing on Monday.

A satellite image showing Laura early on Tuesday morning, just after the storm reached hurricane strength. (NOAA)

Tropical storm warnings were issued early Monday morning for the middle and lower Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to Key West in Florida. Late Monday evening, the tropical storm warning was discontinued for the middle Florida Keys, but remained in effect for the lower Florida Keys. Early Tuesday morning, all warnings for Florida were discontinued as Laura continued to move farther to the west.

Although some gusty showers and thunderstorms on the outer periphery of the storm reached the Florida Keys on Monday night, with wind gusts of 40-50 mph, the brunt of Laura’s wrath is set to charge toward parts of the central and northwestern U.S. Gulf Coast.

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Laura will take a curved path into the central Gulf of Mexico around a strengthening and westward-extending high pressure system, known as the Bermuda-Azores high-pressure area.

“Laura will briefly track over the shallow wake of cooler water left in the Gulf from Marco; this might slow Laura’s intensification process but only briefly,” Kottlowski said. “Then, Laura will be over very warm water and in a low wind shear environment, which will favor strengthening.”

Kottlowski also mentioned that this favorable region may allow Laura to “rapidly strengthen,” opening up the possibility for Laura to briefly become a major hurricane at Category 3 strength, with maximum sustained winds of 111 mph or greater.

AccuWeather meteorologists are predicting that Laura will make landfall as a Category 3 hurricane, but it is possible that the storm could peak at a higher level while over the Gulf. The storm is expected to strike near the Texas-Louisiana border late Wednesday or Wednesday night.

Impacts are forecast to reach the southern coasts of Louisiana first early on Wednesday morning in the form of torrential, tropical rainfall and gusty winds.

The strongest winds will likely be near the center and just to the east of the eye of the storm. Hurricane-force winds are expected to begin as Laura strengthens over the Gulf of Mexico on Monday night.

Damaging winds will reach the central Gulf Coast at midweek, with wind gusts of 100-120 mph near where Laura makes landfall with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ wind gust of 130 mph.

“These winds can cause power outages and damage to structures and trees,” AccuWeather Meteorologist Brett Rossio said.

Trees that are sitting in soil that has already been saturated by Marco will be more susceptible to being toppled in Laura’s fierce winds.

“Even with a glancing blow in Houston, winds could approach hurricane-force over the high buildings in the downtown area with the likelihood of power outages and property damage down below,” Kottlowski said. “Impact could be greater in the Houston area if the storm shifts it’s track farther to the west.”

In addition to wind, Laura will also bring life-threatening flooding from rainfall.

“Rainfall from Laura may fall across the same places that received tremendous rainfall from Marco, further exacerbating the flooding situation along the Gulf coast,” Rossio said.

The combination of Marco’s heavy rain from the western Florida Panhandle to central Louisiana and another round of tropical downpours from Laura could make some areas more susceptible than usual to flooding.

From Laura alone, the highest rainfall totals of 4-8 inches with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 12 inches will be most likely in southern Louisiana.

As is typically the case with a land-falling tropical system, isolated tornadoes will be possible north and east of the center of the storm. In addition, the Louisiana coastline is likely to take another battering with rough surf, beach erosion and significant coastal flooding from storm surge.

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