By HIROYUKI AKITA, Nikkei senior staff writer From Nikkei

TOKYO — The South China Sea will essentially be “a Chinese lake” by 2030, according to a recent study by a U.S. think tank.

The report sounds the alarm about China’s growing challenge to U.S. dominance in the Asia-Pacific region. It assesses the Barack Obama administration’s strategy for “rebalancing” military and other resources to the region and has sent shock waves through the defense and security communities.

The 270-page study by the U.S. Center for Strategic and International Studies was commissioned by the U.S. Defense Department on orders from Congress.

The report argues that the Chinese military is widely expected to have multiple carrier strike groups by 2030, one reason it gives for the South China Sea becoming “a Chinese lake.”

Chinese hegemony?

“For rival claimants in the South China Sea, this is a game changer,” the study says. “There will almost always be a Chinese [carrier strike group] floating in contested waters, or within a half-day’s steaming time.”

The CSIS argues that “the South China Sea will be virtually a Chinese lake, as the Caribbean or the Gulf of Mexico is for the United States.”

There have been a number of analyses saying the military balance will tip in favor of China in the South China Sea. However, this report carries weight.

It must be particularly irritating for U.S. strategists to read a forecast of the South China Sea becoming China’s Caribbean. In recent years, geopolitical thinkers have concluded that a rising China is challenging U.S. dominance in the Asia-Pacific region.

From the 19th century to the early 20th century, the U.S. fought against Spain and took control of the Caribbean Sea, an important shipping lane. Controlling the Panama Canal helped the U.S. to gain hegemony over the Americas. In the Asia-Pacific region, the South China Sea is equally strategic, and China’s hold on it would come at the cost of lost U.S. influence in this part of the world.

Study guide

This bold prediction alone would not have grabbed much attention in Washington, D.C., which has buildings full of think tanks. But the prediction coupled with the fact that the report was commissioned by the Defense Department has created buzz.

Some Congress members have been critical of the Obama administration for talking the rebalancing talk but failing to walk the walk. So the Republican-controlled Congress — Obama is a Democrat — mandated that the U.S. Defense Department commission a third party to compile a report and verify how effective the rebalance actually has been.

This led to the CSIS report. In a sense, one can call it a “semipublic” study. It notes that the Obama administration has channeled insufficient energy and budgetary resources into his strategy. It also calls on the government to inject more military capabilities into the region and to beef up security cooperation with Japan and other U.S. allies and partners.

In U.S. two-party politics, the Republicans and Democrats are prone to lash out at each other. This is especially so ahead of U.S. presidential elections, like now. Each party will begin choosing its presidential candidate on Monday night, when voters in the state of Iowa head to caucus halls.

The CSIS is considered by some as bipartisan, and one of the report’s authors was Kathleen Hicks, who served as deputy under secretary of defense for policy in the Obama administration. Thus, one can say the report is politically neutral. It might also offer itself as a good study guide on Asia-Pacific strategy for anyone in the next administration.

Americans will vote for their next president in November, and the winner will take office early next year.

Casting a pall

Japan and Southeast Asian countries have already voiced concern over the Obama administration’s response to China’s growing assertiveness in the South China Sea.

In October, the U.S. government made it clear that the U.S. would not acknowledge the islands China is building up as Chinese territory. To underscore the point, the government said it would continue to dispatch U.S. military vessels within 12 nautical miles, about 22km, of the growing islands twice every three months.

On Oct. 27, the USS Lassen, a guided-missile destroyer equipped with the Aegis combat system, sailed within 12 nautical miles of the islands. The second sail-through only came on Jan. 30.

If China manages to essentially claim the South China Sea as its own, the ramifications would be felt around the world. Nearly half of all global exports of crude oil and liquefied natural gas pass through the South China Sea.

The bulk of Japan’s crude oil imports from the Middle East make their way through the body of water, said a representative of a major Japanese energy company.

As such, the CSIS report can also be seen as casting a pall over Asia’s stability and its ability to act as a driver of global economic growth in the years ahead.

IMAGES:
The U.S. raises concern over China’s accelerating efforts to build more aircraft carriers. China’s first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, is seen in the photo. (Xinhua/Kyodo)
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, left, and U.S. President Barack Obama agreed on greater cooperation in the South China Sea when they met on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Manila last November. © Kyodo

For more on this story go to: http://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Economy/International-Relations/Important-shipping-lane-could-become-China-s-Caribbean