Invest 95L was upgraded to Tropical Depression #14 Tuesday afternoon. The depression was close to tropical storm strength yesterday and I suspect we will see it upgraded to Tropical Storm Maria very soon. The forecasts that I have seen all predict that the system will stay very weak and the strongest it would get is probably to a Category 1 hurricane.

Rob Lightbown wrote, “Tropical Depression 14 is tracking slightly north of due west at a forward speed of 18 to 19 mph. This forward speed is expected to increase over the next couple of days and the low level center may try to outrun any mid-level center and keep this system quite weak. This track will bring this system into the northern Leeward Islands as a tropical storm on Saturday and then across the Virgin Islands as a tropical storm on Saturday night.”
Meanwhile Invest 96L was located yesterday in the Gulf of Mexico. Satellite imagery yesterday showed some organisation of this low-pressure system, however, water vapour imagery showed that there is a very large area of dry air over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.

Rob writes, “Invest 96L is currently located within a low shear environment and development is likely despite the very dry air to its northwest. What may happen is that Invest 96L could tuck itself within that region of low shear and become a small tropical cyclone with the dry air constricting the size of the storm. The European model hints at this with a depiction of a small tropical cyclone developing.

“Since this system is very young, the forecast for Invest 96L is pretty difficult. The European model forecasts 96L to become a fairly strong hurricane as it tracks into the Louisiana coast on Monday.

Rob continues, “…My thinking is that we will have a tropical storm develop in the far southern Gulf of Mexico within the next 24 to 36 hours. From there, I think we will see a slow northward track this weekend with this system intensifying possibly into a hurricane. I think the European model may be too quick in its track into the northern Gulf coast and a track inland somewhere between the central Louisiana coast and the western Florida Panhandle on Tuesday or Wednesday as a hurricane is quite possible.

“I urge all of our Crown Weather friends from Louisiana to Florida to closely watch this system.”

Go to Crown Weather Services at www.crownweather.com and the National Hurricane Centre at www.nhc.noaa.gov/ for more information on these systems. We wish to thank Crown Weather for their permission to use their graphics and information. Please support them.