Friday, June 22, 2012 6:38 am

by Rob Lightbown

Invest 96L was located just north of the Yucatan Peninsula this morning very near 22.36 North Latitude and 89.85 West Longitude. Even though shower and thunderstorm activity was pretty disorganized with a majority of the shower and thunderstorm activity occurring on the east side of 96L across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, the overall circulation of 96L is becoming better defined and surface pressures have fallen from roughly 1007 millibars at 8 pm last evening to 1004 millibars as of 6 am this morning.

I strongly believe that given the increasingly favorable environment that this system is located in that it will be upgraded to either a tropical depression or perhaps even a tropical storm between 5 pm this afternoon and 5 pm Saturday afternoon. Reconnaissance aircraft are currently scheduled to investigate 96L this afternoon to determine whether it is indeed a tropical cyclone.

The latest forecast guidance is coming around to a consensus for a northward and then westward track towards the Texas coast which falls in line with my forecast for this system all along. My choice of model guidance this morning is the European model as for the second forecast run in a row it is forecasting a track that takes it somewhere between Corpus Christi and Brownsville on Thursday of next week. The GFS model is the outlier and will be disregarded as it continues to take what will be Debby into the eastern Gulf of Mexico and ends up forecasting a stall there for almost a week.

The latest track guidance for 96L shows a northward and then westward track which is my thinking as of this morning.

All interests along the Gulf Coast should keep a very close watch on the progress of this system. Needless to say, I am watching Invest 96L very closely and I will keep you all updated.

For more with the latest information and charts go to:

www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557