Is the “M” Storm Forming ??
Blog From Isabel Cerni Caribbean Hurricane Network Sun Nov 3 2013
By the looks of it, and from what I heard this morning, I would say “yes”!
There is a 10% chance of this system, which has been dumping flooding rains on us and surrounding islands, to become the next name storm as it moves sloooowlyto the Western Caribbean.
Unfortunately our friends who are traveling to Guatemala this coming week will probably have to deal with it. Not too long ago the correspondent from Belize wrote that a storm was predicted to go into that area sometime this coming week. We have been having heavy rain again since before dawn and a new Flood Alert has been issued until 9:15 a.m.
These conditions will remain through Tuesday and probably longer. I shall update later, if possible. Have a wonderful day and may God bless us all.
Isabel
For more on this story go to:
http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/report.php?id=1383477150_32867
However the National Hurricane Center at 7:00AM Sun Nov 13 2013 says differently:
For the North Atlantic…Caribbean sea and the Gulf of Mexico…
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending from near the southeastern coast of the Dominican Republic southward over the central Caribbean sea is associated with a broad and weak area of low pressure. E
nvironmental conditions are expected to remain generally unfavorable for development while the surface low drifts westward during the next few days. This system has a low chance…10 percent…of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours…and a low chance…10 percent…of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days.
Regardless of development…heavy rainfall and flooding is possible across portions of Hispaniola…Puerto Rico…and the Virgin Islands during the next couple of days.
And from Tampa Bay Times on Monday (4)
Forecasters tracking area of low pressure over central Caribbean
Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center wereare tracking an area of disorganized storms and low pressure that was located over the central Caribbean early Monday.
Though it was expected to continue to produce thunderstorms and showers, it was given a low, 10 percent chance of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next two days and the same low chance over the next five days.
The area was drifting west and southwest Monday morning.
For more on this story go to:
Last word from Dr Masters?
Is the Atlantic hurricane season of 2013 over?
By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:01 PM GMT on November 01, 2013 From Weather Underground
The tropical Atlantic is quiet, with no threat areas to discuss, and no reliable models predicting development of a tropical cyclone during the coming five days. So, are we all done for 2013? Or will this unusually quiet hurricane season spawn a Tropical Storm Melissa?
The large-scale circulation pattern over the first half of November favors upward-moving air and an increased chance of tropical storm development over the Atlantic, due to the current positioning of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 – 60 days. By mid-November, this pattern will favor sinking air over the tropical Atlantic, making a late-November tropical storm an unlikely proposition. Wind shear has risen to high levels prohibitive for tropical storm formation over the Gulf of Mexico and the waters near the Bahama Islands, and is expected to remain very high through mid-November, according to the latest run of the GFS model.
However, wind shear over the Caribbean is likely to be average to below average for the next two weeks, making tropical storm formation possible there. The oceans are certainly warm enough to support development, with Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Caribbean 0.2°C (0.37°F) above average, and well above the 26°C (79°F) threshold typically needed to support tropical storm formation.
Dry air–which has dominated the tropical Atlantic during the 2013 hurricane season–will continue to make its presence felt over the Caribbean during portions of the coming two weeks, though, reducing the odds of development.
The African Monsoon is quiet this time of year, and we no longer have African waves coming off the coast of Africa that can act as the seeds for formation of a tropical storm in the Caribbean.
If we do get a tropical storm, it will probably be in the Western Caribbean, where the tail end of a cold front lingers long enough over warm waters to generate some heavy thunderstorms and acquire a spin.
A cold front capable of triggering such a disturbance will arrive over the Western Caribbean November 8 – 9, but the GFS and ECMWF models are not suggesting any development from this front.
Taking all these factors into account, I predict that the Atlantic hurricane season of 2013 is over, with just a 20% chance of another named storm this season.
For more on this story go to:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2568
