By Jake Sojda, AccuWeather meteorologist & Renee Duff, AccuWeather meteorologist From AccuWeather

Along its course toward the United States, Tropical Storm Laura has unleashed damaging and deadly impacts across the northern Caribbean. At least nine deaths have been attributed to Laura,three of which occurred in the Dominican Republic and five in Haiti.

Laura developed in the Atlantic just a couple of hundred miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands on Friday morning, shattering the record for the earliest “L”-named storm on record in the basin. The previous “L” storm record was held by Luis, which formed on Aug. 29, 1995.

A satellite view of Tropical Storm Laura centered near eastern Cuba on Monday morning, Aug. 24, 2020. (AccuWeather)

As of early Monday morning, the storm had strengthened slightly near eastern Cuba, with wind speeds of 65 mph and was moving west-northwest at 21 mph.

Tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect from Cuba to the Florida Keys. The National Hurricane Center stated early Monday morning that a hurricane watch would likely be required for portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast by Monday evening.

Puerto Rico was one of the first Caribbean islands to feel the effects of Laura earlier this past weekend. Puerto Rico Gov. Wanda Vázquez declared a state of emergency and warned residents to stay inside as downpours and gusty winds drenched the island early this weekend. Nearly 6 inches of rain fell in some areas, prompting flood warnings. The Rio Guanajibo River near Hormigueros has risen about 6 feet as of Saturday night.

Heavy rain and high winds will continue to spread westward across Cuba as the storm cruises along a swift pace through Monday.

Rainfall can average 4-8 inches with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 12 inches across the region, leading to flash flooding, washouts and mudslides.

Tropical-storm-force winds of 40-60 mph with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 70 mph will sweep across Cuba through Monday, likely leading to some power outages, downed trees and minor structural damage.

In Cuba, Laura will be less than one on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes, a scale that rates tropical systems from less than one to five based on expected impacts.

While the brunt of Laura’s rain and wind will pass south of the Florida Keys, there can be a few gusty showers and thunderstorms on the outer periphery of the storm that move into the area on Monday.

“Some tropical-storm-force wind gusts of 40-50 mph can reach the Florida Keys,” AccuWeather Meteorologist Brett Rossio said.

On Friday, officials in the Florida Keys ordered a mandatory evacuation for local residents living in boats, mobile homes or any recreational vehicles, but this order was rescinded on Sunday due to Laura’s more southward track.

“Those who are staying in this type of shelter should seek to stay with friends or family or be prepared to shelter in place during the storm. Those on boats should seek shelter on land. General population shelters will not be opened at this time, but the sheltering plan remains in place if a need arises,” a statement from Monroe County Emergency Management said.

Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards declared a state of emergency on Friday evening for the state in an effort to allow local governments assistance in preparation at a state level.

“It shouldn’t be lost on anyone that in addition to these weather threats, we still have to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic,” Edwards tweeted, explaining that personal protective equipment should be new additions to emergency kits, including masks and hand sanitizer.

Edwards also requested a Federal Emergency Declaration prior to either storm making landfall on Saturday.

“This is unlike anything we have seen, with two [storms] expected to impact our state nearly back to back,” he said, referring to Marco and Laura. “This may mean that people will have to shelter in place for more than 72 hours and that there may not be time to do things like restore lost power between the two storms.”

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“Once the primary circulation of Laura emerges over the waters of the southeastern Gulf of Mexico late Monday into Tuesday, environmental conditions will be more favorable for strengthening, and Laura is expected to become a hurricane prior to reaching the Gulf Coast,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Rob Miller said.

Although wind shear was to blame for Marco’s weakening on its approach of the Louisiana coastline early Monday morning, this shear is likely to lessen by the time Laura arrives.

The lower wind shear, combined with the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico, will be factors in favor of Laura reaching hurricane strength.

Laura will take a curved path into the central Gulf of Mexico around a strengthening and westward extending high pressure system, known as theBermuda-Azores high pressure area.

If the high expands farther west than currently forecast, this could push Laura into the western Gulf Coast, and possibly put Houston at risk for more severe impacts.

At this juncture, AccuWeather meteorologists expect Laura to make landfall along the Louisiana coastline as at least a Category 2 hurricane around midweek.

Some residents along the central Gulf Coast may have to deal with two land-falling tropical systems just days apart, following Marco’s anticipated landfall along the Louisiana coastline on Monday.

“Rainfall from Laura may fall across the same places that received tremendous rainfall from Marco, further exacerbating the flooding situation along the Gulf Coast,” Rossio said.

Heavy rain will reach the central Gulf Coast Wednesday into Wednesday night. The highest rainfall totals of 4-8 inches with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 12 inches will be most likely in southern Louisiana.

Damaging winds will reach the central Gulf Coast at midweek, with wind gusts of 100-120 mph near where Laura makes landfall with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ wind gust of 130 mph.

“These winds can cause power outages and damage to structures and trees,” Rossio said.

Trees that are sitting in soil that has already been saturated by Marco will be more susceptible to being toppled in Laura’s fierce winds.

“If Laura’s forecast track toward the Louisiana coast pans out, power crews may not even be able to go to some areas after Marco exits. As soon as they get there they may have to evacuate again to avoid Laura,” said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski.

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As is typically the case with a land-falling tropical system, isolated tornadoes will be possible north and east of the center of the storm. In addition, the Louisiana coastline is likely to take another battering with rough surf, beach erosion and significant coastal flooding from storm surge.

All residents are urged to pay attention to evacuation orders from local officials.

Laura is likely to still pack a punch in terms of wind and rain as it tracks through the Mississippi and Ohio valleys late in the week. Enough rain can fall in these areas to produce flash flooding, and wind damage and isolated tornadoes will still be possible.

Prior to Laura’s formation, Cristobal, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine and Kyle had all set new records for their designated letters in 2020.

AccuWeather meteorologists forecast a hyperactive year for tropical storms and hurricanes — enough that Greek letters may once again be needed. Due to 2020’s record pace and upcoming conditions expected in the basin,AccuWeather meteorologists upped their forecast for the number of tropical storms in late July, with up to 24 now predicted and up to 11 hurricanes projected for the season.

Tropical storms are named for most letters of the alphabet, with the exception of Q, U, X, Y and Z. Beyond that, Greek letters are used to name systems. The infamous 2005 Atlantic hurricane season holds the record for the greatest number of named storms at 28, and 2005 was the only year to use Greek letters.

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