This letter was in response to my Editorial re Proposed Runway Extension

From John Evans

Good morning Colin

Can’t help but laugh at the inane comments coming from Moses over this. It’s almost like he believes that if they pour a bit more concrete the big birds will magicly start landing – what he can’t seem to explain is where they’re going to find all the new tourists. The Kimpton and a renovated TI (if they ever achieve it) isn’t going to make any increase in room availability at all, it just restores things to the 2009/10 levels.

This was part of my response in the Compass –
Interesting comment that the extension will allow a Boeing 777-300 to fly directly into ORIA ‘with an “80 percent payload” – that is, a full load of passengers with cargo restrictions’. There’s only one problem – it has to fly out again and even 7700′ isn’t enough to do that safely with a sensible fuel load.

In fact if CAACI apply similar rules to those in the UK the cricket pitch will probably have to be closed once the extension is operational and when ORIA operates on 26 (coming in from North Sound) traffic on Huldah Avenue may have to be stopped during take offs and landings. The reality is that the only sensible runway extension is at least 2000′, anything less is a waste of money. As you know back in 2007 CIG recognised this and were talking about re-routing Huldah Avenue as part of a massive runway extension. I was even told that the site for a new cricket ground had been designated. The was nine years ago. As you say ‘soon come?’

I suspect it’s also nonsense to suggest that a longer runway would attract direct flights from LA. AA already has excellent connections from the West Coast via Miami, I’ve used them. So why would they fly direct? It’s simple maths – their aircraft will always make more money flying hub to hub internally than on a relatively long, seasonal route out of the USA to GCM. The other problem is fuel costs. Last time I checked Jet A1 was over three times more expensive at ORIA than in Miami and over twice the price it is in Jamaica. AA would probably use a Boeing 757 on the route and that would need refuelling for the return leg. The same argument goes for direct transatlantic flights – there’d have to be major changes in the fuel supply situation at ORIA for this to work.

The real problem Moses needs to get his head around is that Grand Cayman is (has?) priced itself out of too many tourist markets. This Saturday (6 Feb) I celebrate my official retirement. I considered coming to Grand Cayman for it but the best flights, hotel and car rental package worked out over £2600. Even back in November BA wanted £1000 just for economy seats in one of their clapped out old 767s. Instead I’m flying to LA for a few days. It wasn’t an easy decision but what swung it was when I found premium economy seats on one of Virgin’s brand new 787 Dreamliners for the same price as the BA economy fares to GCM. In fact the Virgin economy return fare to LA is less than BA’s one-way ticket to or from GCM. As part of the package I’m flying back via San Francisco with a connection on Delta that I upgraded for £12. My LA hotel (Days Inn) is right in the Downtown/China Town area and it’s just £70 a night for b&b. Other options I considered were a week all inclusive in Costa Rica (£1600) and the same in Cuba (£900) – again the flights were on a Dreamliner.

DoT are simply getting themselves into a situation where the tourist train has departed leaving them all behind on the platform. The Cuban government is talking about 13,600 new hotel rooms and they’ll do it. Once the doors open, communist countries move forward at an incredible rate. When I went to Albania in April 1991 (I’m planning to go back this year) there were about a dozen hotels in the whole country and they were all pretty rundown. In Tirana there was just one, located right on Skanderbeg Square. Albania was a bit slow moving on but after the 1999 NATO intervention in Kosovo money started to pour in. There are currently 161 hotels listed on booking.com for Tirana alone. Shkoder, where in 1991 the only hotel was a complete tip, now has 35 hotels. Vlore, which has a great coastline, boasts 64 hotels but is still not crowded. Albania is a quarter the size and population of Cuba with a pretty nasty winter climate so again it’s simple maths – if they can do it so can the Cubans.

The two things the Cayman Islands really lack are proper flight connections to Europe/the UK and sensibly priced hotel/resort accommodation. Quite what you can do about the latter (DoT having apparently ruled out cooperation with the big all-inclusive operators who they regard as down-market) I don’t know but the airlift issue has a very simple solution – lay on flights connecting ORIA with the major UK/European carriers serving places like Kingston, Havana and Nassau. The problem with that is CAL. Virgin tried this a few years ago and nothing came of it. BA list code shares with CAL out of JFK and Miami but they are only outbound from the UK and incur a fare increase of about £150 out of Miami and £1400 out of JFK! The JFK timings also involve an overnight stay so it doesn’t look like there’s much cooperation going on here. This is exactly the market CAL needs to get into, you don’t even need jets for it because 68-seat ATR72s would do the job. The ATRs also have the advantage that, unlike a 737, they need minimal ground handling support and they could also operate on the Brac service.

As you already know I believe CAL should stop trying to compete on US routes and down-size to a regional carrier. That would let AA, Delta, whatever absorb the current CAL passenger loads and might even bring down fares. If nothing else it would mean tourists from the USA would arrive and depart in modern, well-maintained aircraft not old relics ready for the bone yard.

And reaction here to the Peretti TV feature? Almost everyone I know who watched it was more influenced by the images of cruise shippers packing into GT than anything else. Tales of offshore banking and the filthy rich may go over people’s heads but the sight of people queuing and hustling like that in the Caribbean sun leaves a lasting impression. I don’t know anyone who was contemplating a trip but if there were any they won’t be going now. That bit of footage probably did more damage than anything else.

Regards, John.

PS I’ve done a bit more research and the ATR72 suggestion might not be a good idea. The Bombardier Dash 8 Q400 looks like a much better option.

IMAGE: www.thenewstribe.com