Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
639 AM EDT Tue May 22 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC.

…SPECIAL FEATURES…

The southern end of a sharp upper trough over the northwest Caribbean is supporting a surface trough reaches from central Honduras to near Cozumel Island. Deep layer tropical moisture continues to stream northward on the eastern edge of the upper trough, where related upper divergence is supporting clusters of showers and thunderstorms from just north of San Andres Island to just south of Grand Cayman Island. While environmental conditions are expected to be unfavorable for development low pressure along the surface trough during the next couple of days, some gradual subtropical or tropical development is possible later this week while the system moves slowly northward into the central or eastern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across western Cuba and much of Florida during the next several days. For more information on the heavy
rain threat, please see products issued by your local weather office. There is a very low chance for tropical storm formation within 48 hours.

…DISCUSSION

CARIBBEAN SEA…

Please read the Special Features section for more details about the upper level trough and related surface weather features over NW Caribbean Sea.

Atlantic ridging north of the area is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds from the tropical north Atlantic west of 55W to the central Caribbean, except for fresh to strong winds funneling along the higher coastal terrain of northeast Colombia and northwest Venezuela. Trade wind convergence, possibly aided by the upper trough is supporting scattered convection from the central coast of Colombia to near 13N77W. Meanwhile a weak tropical wave over the far eastern Caribbean is starting to lose definition as it drifts west, and will likely dissipate. A line of showers and thunderstorms is active from near Guadeloupe to 18N55W, at the base of broad upper low centered north of the area. Buoy observations and altimeter data show5 to 7 ft seas in the northwest Caribbean, 6 to 8 ft seas over the central Caribbean, and 4 to 6 ft seas in the eastern Caribbean, and 5 to 7 ft seas elsewhere.

The Atlantic ridge will maintain fresh to locally strong trades over the central Caribbean through Fri. Strong winds and seas to 9 ft will affect the NW coast of Colombia. Low pressure may form along the trough in the northwest Caribbean and near the Yucatan Peninsula through mid week, then move north into the Gulf of Mexico late Thu. Fresh to strong winds will develop between the trough and the Atlantic high pressure south of Cuba Fri,persisting through Sat.

For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

END

IMAGE: http://www.intellicast.com/global/satellite/infrared.aspx?region=hicbsat