By David Jessop From Barbados Nation News

IT SEEMS TO ME, when I was looking at some of the issues for tourism, that the tourism industry doesn’t actually have the same luxury to wait and take some of this analysis because tourism, unlike any other industry in the region, is uniquely exposed to the short and medium term economic effects of Brexit and that’s because the industry depends on consumer and investor confidence in its principal feeder markets, the currencies of visitors retaining purchasing power, the predictability of regulation and investor certainty.

So I did a quick analysis and I can see a number of ways in which the region’s industry might be affected.

Firstly is the collapse in the value of sterling to the US dollar, and by extension its decline in relation to all dollar related currencies in the Caribbean, is likely to last for some years.

And while no doubt sterling will in due course settle, it’s interesting to note that in the last couple of days some financial analysts have been suggesting that it will settle at around about US$1.25 to the pound sterling.

And that seems to suggest that the present weakness of the pound sterling suggests that the short-term outlook for most destinations, particularly for mid-market and family vacations in the Caribbean, will remain uncertain perhaps for a while.

Questions arise in relation to future development assistance. The industry and some governments have been making quite significant progress, with UK support, in having the EU recognise the importance of tourism and providing it with development support.

But when the UK departs the European Development Fund, it will lose the UK contribution which is currently about 15 per cent of the total of 500 million euros each year. How the UK decides its bilateral development priorities outside of the EU remains to be seen and I do wonder how that will actually work given that Prime Minister David Cameron recently promised a significant amount to the region in terms of grant assistance.

There are likely to be a wide range of regulatory issues that will arise, as everything from standards to consumer regulations, open skies agreements and environmental issues, which have been agreed at the EU level, will have to be looked at again in the context of the future relationship.

And while it’s quite possible that much will remain the same, it’s clear that with the UK’s now limited negotiating capacity, the Caribbean is not perhaps going to be a priority.

It’s still very early days to try and analyse these issues but I think that there are two or three steps that the tourism industry could perhaps begin to start thinking about. The first is to undertake a detailed assessment of how much the UK market matters and to study the likely issues that will arise out of eventually having regulatory and trade environments with the UK and with the EU 27.

The second is really getting to know the individuals involved. That’s to say, develop a relationship on a sustained basis with those who will be politically and administratively responsible for negotiating the UK’s exit and its future relationship with the rest of the world.

The third is something the Caribbean is doing already, but to continue the process of market and airlift diversification in countries that rely heavily on UK visitors. It seems to me to be absolutely vital in this process that tourism boards, the industry and governments work together to determine how they respond.

• David Jessop is a consultant to The Caribbean Council, a trade advisory organisation in London, United Kingdom.

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