From Rob Lightbown, Crown Weather Services

GFS Model Backs Off On Tropical Development In The Southwestern Caribbean At The End Of The Month; I Still Think Tropical Development Is A Possibility During The First Week Of June In The Southwestern Caribbean

As I mentioned a few days ago, I thought the GFS model guidance was way too fast in its forecast development of a tropical system in the southwestern Caribbean during the final week of May. Latest trends by the GFS model show that it is no longer forecasting tropical development over the next sixteen days. It still looks likely, however, that a strong upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation will move into the western Caribbean between May 24th and May 29th. The graphic attached shows this MJO upward motion pulse with the area in green representing upward moving air and thus would lead to increased convection.

I believe that there are two analog storms that may match closely to what could happen: The first is 1995’s Hurricane Allison which developed just north of Honduras on June 2nd and then tracked north and then northeastward towards the Florida Panhandle by June 5th. The second is 2005’s Tropical Storm Arlene which also formed just north of Honduras on June 8th and then tracked northward to the far western Florida Panhandle by June 12th.

So, given the fact that we have a strong Madden Julian Oscillation expected at the end of the month and the forecast of high pressure from the Mid-Atlantic states to the northeastern United States, it would seem quite possible that we should see a tropical storm developing in the western Caribbean during the first ten days or so of June.

For more on this story go to:

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=7327

See iNews Cayman story published April 11 2013 “Another very active Atlantic hurricane season says all forecasters” at

http://www.ieyenews.com/2013/04/another-very-active-atlantic-hurricane-season-says-all-forecasters/