Forecast from Cayman Islands National Weather Service

Cloudy skies with a 40% chance of showers and thunder. Temperatures will rise to the mid 80’s. Winds will be east to southeast 10 to 15 knots. Seas will be moderate with wave heights of 3 to 5 knots.

OUTLOOK: is for a gradual decrease in cloudiness and showers from Wednesday afternoon as the tropical wave moves away from the Cayman area.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) Miami discussion on the tropical wave is:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

200 PM EDT MON AUG 13 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN ARE MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NORTHWARD TO HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR REGENERATION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD HONDURAS…BELIZE…AND THE YUCATAN. THIS

SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE…20 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 20 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON…IF NECESSARY.

Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather says

“Remnants Of Tropical Depression 7 Likely Will Not Redevelop; Invest 93L May Develop Into A Tropical Cyclone Later This Week, However, It Is Of No Threat To Land; Atlantic May Become Active From August 19 To September 8”

Monday, August 13, 2012 11:16 am

by Rob Lightbown

The remnants of Tropical Depression #7 were located over the central Caribbean as of late this morning. These remnants are expected to bring heavy rainfall with the threat for flash flooding to southern and southwestern Haiti and Jamaica from this afternoon through tonight. Environmental conditions are unfavorable for redevelopment due to hostile wind shear conditions and these remnants are expected to track into the Yucatan Peninsula by Wednesday.

By late this week into this weekend, the remnants of Tropical Depression #7 will reach the Bay of Campeche and the far southwestern Gulf of Mexico with the GFS model ultimately taking this system inland into central Mexico by Sunday. Even here, the chances of redevelopment at this time seems low, however, it will likely bring heavy rainfall to central and northern Mexico, as well as the Rio Grande of Texas this weekend into early next week.

Another area that I am watching late this morning is a tropical disturbance, designated Invest 93L, located over the Central Atlantic approximately 1200 miles to the west-northwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Thunderstorm activity with this system is nearly nil, however, it does have a pretty decent spin associated with it. Any development this week seems unlikely due to very dry Saharan Air which has caused the absence of thunderstorm activity. All indications are that Invest 93L will curve well east of Bermuda and may end up developing into a tropical cyclone as it tracks to the east of Bermuda by late this week and into this weekend. Invest 93L, whether it develops or not, is of no threat to any land areas.

The tropical Atlantic may become more active after August 19th as the Madden Julian Oscillation goes into an upward motion phase over the Atlantic Basin, while at the same the overall pattern across the United States flips to a cooler pattern leading to near or slightly below average temperatures across the central and eastern United States for the second half of August. Many times these pattern flips leads to the “switch” in the Atlantic being flipped to the on position; thus, increased activity in the Atlantic for the second half of August into the first several days of September.

As I mentioned earlier in the Hurricane season, I think we will have to continue watching for in-close development as this is the type of season for that rather than the long-tracked storms. So, what we should look for are inactive tropical disturbances that either reach just east of the Bahamas or the western Caribbean or the Gulf of Mexico and develop close to the United States coastline.

For much more and lots of graphics go to:

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557