Rina today (27) is falling apart despite trying to make a comeback.  It has been dowgraded to a Tropical Storm. Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather writes, “However, the latest satellite imagery and reconnaissance reports indicate that Rina is becoming very ragged and some more weakening has occurred according to reconnaissance reports. It appears that Rina is barely a hurricane this morning and some more weakening is likely as the storm encounters increasing wind shear and land interaction with the Yucatan Peninsula; in fact, it appears that Cancun and Cozumel probably will not even experience hurricane force winds, but tropical storm force winds are likely in both places today through tonight.

“Rina is tracking northwestward at a forward speed of 6 mph this morning and it appears that since Rina is much weaker than previously expected, it will weaken rapidly this weekend and the end result will be quite similar to Hurricane Paula from last year where it weakened and dissipated near Cuba and never regenerated. It is looking more and more likely that south Florida will escape any effects from Rina, however, a frontal system crossing the Florida Peninsula will cause widespread showers and thunderstorms to much of the Florida Peninsula from Friday afternoon through Friday night.”

Rob does warn that the European model that performed very well in forecasting Rina’s falling apart also forecasts a regeneration of Rina about Wednesday as it approaches the Yucatan Peninsula once again. Also, despite the National Hurricane Centre still giving Invest 97L an almost zero chance of becoming a tropical cyclone over the next few days, satellite imagery does suggest it is not giving up. We are going to get very wet from this low over the next few days. Please keep looking at both these systems – they are not dead.

For the full weather discussion go to Crown Weather Services at www.crownweather.com and to the National Hurricane Centre at www.nhc.noaa.gov/. We wish to thank Crown Weather for the permission to use their graphics and information. Please support them. Also look for the local advisories from the C.I. Government at www.weather.gov.ky