By Sir Ronald Sanders

Sir Ronald Sanders

Like much of the world, the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) countries – at both governmental and public levels – are contemplating what relations to expect from a new Donald Trump administration.

Judging from the opinion pieces, editorials, and various web discussions emanating from the region, it is evident that the overwhelming hope was for Kamala Harris to emerge as the 47th President of the United States (US). This hope was based on many things, including her identity as a woman of colour with a Jamaican father.

But the hope for Harris was also based on a fear of Mr Trump’s policies, interpreted from his last administration, as well as things he said on the campaign trail. Amid the latter were references against Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) initiatives, opposition to what Mr Trump referred to as a “woke” curriculum (often associated with teaching US history that includes slavery, segregation, and civil rights movements), and suggested restrictions on voting such as voter ID laws, limitations on mail-in ballots, and fewer polling places that could be barriers to voting access, especially for marginalised communities. The heated remarks regarding immigrants throughout the campaign would also have troubled Caribbean migrants in the US and their families at home.

However, it should also be recognised that, among the Caribbean immigrant community in the US and populations in the Caribbean itself, there was admiration for Mr Trump and support for his leadership style. He was revered as a strong leader, and many believed that conditions for the US black population had improved during his last administration.

Regardless of where Caribbean governments, private sector leaders, or societies stood on the election, Donald Trump has been elected with a significant majority of the popular vote, and he won much more than the necessary votes required for the country’s electoral college to declare him the undisputed winner. The latter fact was clear to both incumbent President Joe Biden and to Kamala Harris, who called Trump to concede defeat and to congratulate him. All Caribbean governments should do the same, as did Antigua and Barbuda’s Prime Minister Gaston Browne, on November 6, after it was declared that Trump had attained more than the 270 votes needed in the Electoral College.

The decision about the presidency of the US rests solely with the electorate of the country. It is to the US electorate and the US Constitution that Mr Trump is responsible. His task is made easier by the fact that his Republican Party now has a majority in the Senate, Republican appointees dominate the US Supreme Court, and, as this commentary is being written, the Republicans are also close to securing the majority in the House of Representatives. All this puts Mr Trump in a strong position to carry out his policies and execute his programmes in the domestic, regional, and international spheres.

Three main areas will concern Caribbean relations with the US under Mr Trump’s presidency. These are: trade and aid; climate change, and global peace and stability.

Mr Trump has made it clear that he is dissatisfied with the US balance of trade surplus with several countries, especially China and the European Union (EU). He advocated for a universal minimum tariff of 10% on all imports, with the potential for higher rates on specific goods or from certain countries; he also talked of a “Trump Reciprocal Trade Act”, granting the president authority to impose reciprocal tariffs on countries that impose tariffs on US goods.

In this matter, the Caribbean region and CARICOM countries particularly are in a good place. The US has enjoyed a perennial balance of trade surplus with CARICOM countries collectively. In 2023, the US trade surplus was $7.4 billion. The figure would have been larger had it not been for trade deficits with Guyana and Trinidad and Tobago of $1.9 billion and $889 million, respectively, because of US imports of needed oil and gas.

When this figure is compared with US aid to CARICOM countries, it shows that the US trade surplus far exceeds US aid. US total global aid in 2023 was $61 billion, half of which went to 10 countries, principally Ukraine ($16.4 billion) and Israel ($3.3) billion. All of the 14 independent CARICOM countries received $456.2 million, of which $393.8 million went to Haiti, leaving $62.4 million for the remaining 13 countries. In other words, the US trade surplus with CARICOM countries is $7 billion more than the aid given by the US. CARICOM might consider ways to leverage this economic interdependence to improve trade terms and promote greater investment in the region.

Mr Trump has also declared his intention to lower the US corporate tax rate from 21 to 15 per cent. This has two implications for the Caribbean. First, some Caribbean countries may have to reduce their own corporate tax rates to remain competitive. Second, if the US pursues a unilateral tax strategy, breaking ranks with the OECD, it could potentially unravel the OECD’s imposed tax rules, satisfying many Caribbean countries.

On climate change, Mr Trump’s policies will pose difficulties for Caribbean countries which are among the worst affected by extreme weather conditions, including global warming and sea level rise. During his presidential campaign, he downplayed climate change and again expressed his intention to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement, and to expand oil and gas production, removing regulations that impede fossil fuel extraction. CARICOM countries, however, remain committed to sustainable development and will need to engage the US in urgent discussions, to ensure progress on global climate goals.

With regard to global peace and stability, most Caribbean countries have been deeply concerned about the conflict between Israel and Palestinian groups. They firmly believe that achieving a two-state solution in which the two peoples can live within secure borders is essential. Mr Trump’s declared strong commitment to Israel and its prime minister will require much diplomacy and commitment. CARICOM has a history of supporting multilateral peace efforts, and it is likely it will seek to uphold a balanced approach to Middle East peace within international forums.

At a people-to-people level, the US and the Caribbean have been so deeply intertwined historically that only the current social instability and economic underdevelopment, promoting large numbers of refugees to flee illegally to the US, poses a threat to the continuing strength of their relationship.

But the US and the Caribbean live in proximity to each other and, therefore, like all close relationships, they both have to preserve their relations in each other’s interest, not only for the present but also for the future.

Sir Ronald Sanders is Antigua and Barbuda’s Ambassador to the US and the OAS. The views expressed are entirely his own. Responses and previous commentaries: www.sirronaldsanders.com