Although the Cayman Islands Premier, Hon. McKeeva Bush, was very low key in his presentation of the government’s Strategic Policy Statement (SPS) to the Legislative Assembly (LA) before hopping on his bus to the UK, it promises a dreamlike economy, huge surpluses, lots and lots of cash, a debt that almost decreases to zero, a public sector free of fat and the noose around our neck gone with the UK hangman sent packing.

The government’s forecast is over the next three years to 2016 (for those who have difficulty with figures) and is tailored to comply with the UK’s guidelines laid out in the Framework for Fiscal responsibility (FFR) that is incorporated in the Public Management and Finance Law.

The SPS is lengthy, at nearly 50 pages, and concludes that it “outlines a framework that will restore the Public Finances of these beloved Cayman Islands.

“It is a Plan that does not include any new revenue raising measures over the medium term or any drastic actions that would cause economic shock. Rather through a combination of growing cash reserves, increased efficiencies leading to a decline in Public Sector Costs, declining Public Debt and enhanced liability management, the Government has charted a path towards stability and prosperity.

“The Government recognises that reducing the Budget Deficit will not by itself solve our present economic challenges. On the contrary, if the Government suddenly reduced spending, it may serve to exasperate the problem by reducing consumption in the local Economy while increasing the need for social assistance.

“Our economic policies are therefore designed to allow the Cayman Islands to gradually restore Public Finances through the support of the private sector and the gradual decline of public sector costs to more sustainable levels.”

The SPS has been well presented, with lots of graphs and graphics, including a smiling premier, and if everything works out to the Plan, Mr. Bush will have a lot to smile about.

However, and it is a very big however, the prediction of over $400M in the bank and the total debt reduced down to $500M relies solely on the Dr. Shetty hospital, the cruise ship berthing facilities, the expansion of the airport that will mean more flights and more visitors, the Cayman Enterprise City and the “beloved” ForCayman Investment Alliance.

If just one of these projects doesn’t go ahead or at the speed projected, then the dream ends immediately. There are no new revenue raising measures and the fat free public sector (PS) is achieved not by redundancies but by “attrition, mergers and centralization”. If government was to take such drastic action of getting rid of people it could cause “economic shock”.

The definition of ‘attrition’ is “wearing down, wearing away, weakening, debilitation, enfeebling, sapping, attenuation; gradual loss.” So, if everybody in the PS is strong and fit they have nothing to worry about, even if they are completely incompetent at their job!

There is nothing in the Plan that hints of reducing government spending either because it concludes, “it may serve to exasperate the problem by reducing consumption in the local Economy while increasing the need for social assistance.”

The Plan is relying heavily on growth in the private sector, although not saying how this is going to be achieved or listing any new future projects.

We must all hope and plant that “grain of seed”. Keep it well watered.

The Government SPS is available to read at  http://issuu.com/inewscayman/docs/sps_201314?mode=window&backgroundColor=%23222222