Hazard Management says “be prepared”

Hazard Management Cayman Islands and the National Weather Service are currently monitoring Tropical Depression number 5 (now TS Ernesto) which is located east of the Windward Islands. TS Ernesto 5 does not pose an immediate threat to the Cayman Islands. The system is disorganized and while the National Hurricane Center in Miami is currently predicting only a 10 to 20 percent chance that the Cayman Islands could be affected by Tropical Storm winds within the next 5 days, the tropical storm serves as a reminder that residents need to be prepared.

Residents should have a week’s supply of non-perishable food and water, a portable radio, a flashlight, and extra batteries available at all times, but particularly during the hurricane season. For a complete list of items you should have in your emergency supply kit, and other tips for protecting your life and property visit Cayman Prepared.ky; or stop by at the Hazard Management office in the Government Administration Building.

National Hurricane Center Miami Fl

5.00PM AST Thu Aug 02 2012

Although satellite images show that the cloud pattern of the cyclone is not that well organized…an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft found SFMR-measured surface winds of about 45 kt over the northern semicircle. Thus the system is being named at this time. Global models suggest that the environment will not become much more conducive for intensification until Ernesto reaches the western Caribbean…and therefore the official wind speed forecast shows only slow strengthening for the next couple of days. This is consistent with the latest HWRF model prediction. Although the official forecast calls for Ernesto to become a hurricane near the end of the forecast period…neither the GFS nor the ECMWF global models depict a strong cyclone at that time.

The aircraft data indicate that the center location is a little south of the previous estimates and the initial motion is estimated to be 270/19.  The mid-tropospheric ridge over the southwest Atlantic that has been driving the cyclone westward is expected to remain in place to the north of Ernesto for the next couple of days.  Later in the period…some slowing and a gradual turn to the west-northwest is expected as Ernesto nears a weakness in the ridge.  The official track forecast is adjusted a little to the left or south of the previous one.  This is near the latest dynamical model consensus…but somewhat north of the new ECMWF forecast track.

Forecast positions and Max winds

init  02/2100z 12.8n  56.6w   45 kt  50 mph

12h  03/0600z 13.0n  59.3w   45 kt  50 mph

24h  03/1800z 13.2n  62.6w   45 kt  50 mph

36h  04/0600z 13.6n  65.8w   50 kt  60 mph

48h  04/1800z 14.2n  68.8w   50 kt  60 mph

72h  05/1800z 15.5n  75.0w   55 kt  65 mph

96h  06/1800z 17.0n  80.0w   65 kt  75 mph

120h  07/1800z 18.5n  83.5w   70 kt  80 mph