When I plowed through the PwC (PricewaterhouseCoopers) Environmental Economic Appraisal I had to wonder if I was reading a different report from the conclusions our Government derived from it.

We have published these three documents that make up the report we received from government pertaining to the controversial cruise ship berthing facility so as you can judge for yourselves.

The Statement on the Report from Deputy Premier Moses Kirkconnell who is also Minister for Tourism, boldly says, “The report concludes that the estimated economic benefits to be derived from the piers exceed the environmental costs associated with the damage to the reef.”

Government have also received “the 2014/2015 Business Research & Economic Advisors Report (BREA) which is typically prepared on behalf of the FCCA to analyse the economic impact of cruise tourism in Caribbean destinations. Given that the BREA report is based on factual, analytical data rather than assumptions, the Ministry commissioned the report and PwC were asked to include an evaluation of the latest BREA findings within their economic assessment.

“The BREA report is both timely and significant because it provides data as recent as 2014 regarding cruise passenger volumes and their spending patterns in Grand Cayman. Conversely, the original OBC drafted in October 2013 and its Addendum drafted by PwC in July 2015 both used data from 2012 in their calculations, as that was the most current information available at the time. These latest statistics have enabled assumptions to be replaced with facts, allowing decisions to be taken based on accurate, credible data.

“The BREA report noted that historical data on passenger arrivals showed that growth in Grand Cayman has lagged significantly behind those destinations with berthing piers. Analysis of the data showed that during the 2014/15 cruise year, 1.45 million passengers visited Grand Cayman spending an average of 4 hours ashore and generating total expenditures of US$160.9 million. This implies an average passenger spend of US$115.60 per passenger which is 23% higher than was assumed in the OBC, which used US$93.70, as was reported for 2012.

“Given the magnitude of the berthing facility project and the potential environmental impact, Government has reviewed 10 comprehensive reports which provide scientific data and analysis on every conceivable aspect of the proposed port development. Since embarking on this journey, the Ministry of Tourism has maintained that any proposed development would be informed by the Outline Business Case [OBC] and the Environmental Impact Assessment [EIA]. The Ministry remains committed to that stance and will continue pursuing a careful and methodical approach as the project moves forward.

“With the EIA confirming there will be no negative impact to Seven Mile Beach, Governments overarching objective is to arrive at an outcome that will deliver the maximum economic benefit to the people of the Cayman Islands with the least environmental impact to George Town Harbour. I am of the view that supporters and opposers to the project are in agreement on this point, as I am sure neither side wishes to see the environment impacted unnecessarily.”

However, PwC found the data is insufficient to justify the project. It added in some scenarios it could lead to serious economic losses along with the environmental ones!

PwC, probably to indemnify themselves, have pointed out many times in their report that the data available to them was “poor” and many assumptions have had to be made.

There is no doubt government are gambling big time in going ahead and there would seem to me more factors against than proceeding forward.

But life in itself is a gamble. The economic risk of going ahead could be enormous for the public purse. If government does not go ahead is answered by Moses Kirkconnell:

“Without berthing facilities the Cayman Islands will not be in the consideration set when itineraries for these ships are being crafted and we will continue to be bypassed as is currently the case with the Oasis ships. As a consequence, our cruise industry will become severely impacted if Carnival Cruise Line and others reduce their calls in port because we cannot service the new ships in their fleet they are transitioning to.

“The question for the Cayman Islands therefore becomes distilled to do we want to remain in the cruise tourism business? If we do, we must understand that doing so means we must provide berthing.”

I can take comfort that this government did instigate many studies and were open with all of them. The last Bush UDP government was going ahead with the cruise ship berthing facility without producing anything like a study. Bush said we had to trust him.

That was the best we got from him.