By Brunello Rosa, From Business Insider Italia

Following the first presidential debate on March 20, the race for the French presidency is now in full swing. My research firm MacroGeo is following these elections very closely.

At the end of last year we published a travel journal from Paris where we noted the risk of underestimating Marine Le Pen’s chances of winning, and more recently our friend Pascal Gauchon, editor-in-chief of the French geopolitical magazine “Conflits,” declared that the French are experiencing their most bizarre election campaign since 1848.

[France will hold its first round election on April 23. The two candidates with the most votes will then face off for the presidency on May 7. The five candidates still in the race are Emmanuel Macron (Onward!, centrist), Marine Le Pen (Nationalist Front, far right), Jean-Luc Mélenchon (Unsubmissive France, far left), François Fillon (The Republicans, right), and Benoît Hamon (Socialist Party, left).]

There are many reasons why the stage was set for the farce that is now playing out.

France has had two one-term presidents in a row.

François Hollande defeated his rival Nicolas Sarkozy in 2012, but at the end of his first five years Hollande has declined to run for a second term because of his very low popularity ratings.

None of the candidates who started off as favorites are still in the race.

Hollande has withdrawn, Sarkozy and early favorite Alain Juppé were defeated by François Fillon in the Republican primaries and former prime minister Manuel Valls lost to Benoît Hamon in the Socialist contest.

The majority of polls indicate that none of the candidates representing the major political parties will qualify for the second ballot.

Hamon and Fillon have been overtaken by Emmanuel Macron, of his independent centrist movement Onward!, and Marine Le Pen, of the far right National Front party. Jean-Luc Mélanchon of the far-left Unsubmissive France movement will likely place third.

The primaries hurt the parties that created them.

The Republican and Socialist parties are the only ones with candidates still in the race that held primaries. And in both cases, party members did not choose the most moderate candidate with the highest chance of winning, but the candidate who was speaking to the most radical elements of his party’s base [without being as radical as the outsider candidates].

It is no coincidence that the candidates who will qualify for the second ballot on May 7 will probably be those who did not take part in the primaries.

The latest ballot of candidates was not known until the deadline hit.

The names of candidates names were only revealed shortly before the deadline, which was highly unusual, due to a series of scandals.

In particular, it was thought for some time that Juppé might return to the race replacing Fillon.

Legal scandals have had a big influence.

Legal scandals are influencing this campaign in a way that’s never been seen before. The “Penelopegate” incident that crippled Fillon’s candidacy [in which it was alleged that Fillon’s wife Penelope received hundreds of thousands of euros in public funds through a fictitious job assisting her husband during his time in parliament] was followed by a similar “fake job” scandal involving members of Marine Le Pen’s staff, and then finally Interior Minister Bruno Le Roux resigned in March over yet another fake jobs scandal, hurting the Socialists.

This doesn’t mean this race should be seen as a comedy. There are serious issues to consider.

Unless Fillon wins, the election will lead to a new political order that will likely destabilize the country.

If either Macron or Le Pen win, it is unlikely they would enjoy a parliamentary majority that would allow them to implement the reforms they have in mind.

The battle between Macron and Le Pen is a clash between an open and European France and an inward-looking country.

The two candidate’s electoral campaigns are diametrically opposed. While Macron is openly pro-European, Le Pen wants France to leave the European Union and abandon the euro.

Le Pen is still underestimated and Macron is overestimated.

Due to the manner in which polls are conducted and because of the reference sample, it is probable that Macron is currently receive a higher approval rating than the ballots will show.

And Le Pen will probably be able to attract voters who are not included in surveys, as well as those who do not publicly endorse her due to the stigma still attached to National Front.

The class struggle has only just begun and will continue regardless of who wins.

The political clash is only a reflection of the clash between social classes and different generations. This was clearly seen in Hamon’s surprise victory in the Socialist primaries, which he won by going further left than Hollande.

Whoever wins these elections will have to change the status quo, but, depending on who wins, the status quo will be changed in favor of some social classes to the disadvantage of others.

Whoever the winner is, he or she will not be everyone’s president.

Whoever is elected will seem to be illegitimate in the eyes of the many French citizens who will not have voted for him or her.

If Macron or Le Pen win, they will lack a parliamentary majority that would block their promised reforms, alienating their voters. And if Macron wins as a centrist, this could cause problems for the Republicans and Socialist parties, whose members would have to decide whether to support the president’s policies.

For all these reasons, and because they could be a potential catalyst for an existential crisis of the European Union, these French elections must be followed with the greatest possible attention.

Brunello Rosa is the CEO and chief economist at MacroGeo, an independent research company combining geopolitical and macro-financial analysis based in London.

Read the original article on Business Insider Italia. Copyright 2017.

IMAGES:

French presidential candidate, of the far right Nationalist Front party, waves to the crowd at a rally on March 26, 2017.Pascal Rossignol/Reuters

French presidential candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon, of the far left Unsubmissive France party, speaks at a rally on March 26, 2017.Stephane Mahe/Reuters

French presidential candidate François Fillon, of The Republicans, waves to supporters on March 24, 2017.Regis Duvignau/Reuters

French presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron, of the independent centrist political movement Onward!, leaves a public appearance.Thomson Reuters

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