Tropical Depression #5 Will Affect Barbados & The Lesser Antilles Tonight Through Friday

Thursday, August 2, 2012 5:28 am

by Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather

Tropical Depression #5:
Invest 99L was upgraded to Tropical Depression # 5 late yesterday afternoon and is currently located about 550 to 560 miles to the east of the Windward Islands this morning. Tropical Storm Watches are currently in effect for the islands of Barbados, St. Vincent, The Grenadines, Dominica, St. Lucia, Martinique, and Guadeloupe.

Satellite imagery for much of last night showed a marked decrease in the overall convection, however, recent satellite images early this morning shows some increase in deeper convection near the center of circulation. This type of waxing and waning of convection is normal with any tropical cyclone that is developing, especially one that is approaching the Lesser Antilles.

Tropical Depression 5 is tracking just slightly north of due west at a forward speed of 21 mph. Based on this forward motion, it seems plausible that TD 5 will reach the Windward Islands right around 7 am EDT Friday morning. This general westward track is likely to continue when the depression reaches the Caribbean by Friday afternoon and is expected to traverse the entire length of the Caribbean this weekend into early next week passing near Jamaica late Sunday night or early Monday morning. It should be noted that the last 4 runs of the GFS model has consistently forecast TD 5 to reach the Bay of Campeche by late next week into next weekend. Meanwhile, the UKMET model has a slightly more northwestward track and pulls this system into the Gulf of Mexico by late next week.

I do think that we will see some slight strengthening over the next 24 hours, enough for TD 5 to be upgraded to Tropical Storm Ernesto. I currently expect TD5/Ernesto to pass just a tad north of Barbados just after midnight tonight and track across the islands of Martinique and St. Lucia as a 40 mph tropical storm during Friday morning.

From there, it appears quite possible that this system will weaken back down to a tropical depression and perhaps open up into a tropical wave as it tracks across the eastern Caribbean on Saturday. This weakening will be caused by strong trade winds in the Caribbean. Should TD 5 reach the western Caribbean by Tuesday and Wednesday, it may be able to strengthen again due to more favorable environmental conditions and warmer sea surface temperatures.

Tropical storm conditions are likely across the islands of Barbados, St. Vincent, the Grenadines, Dominica, St. Lucia, Martinique and Guadeloupe starting tonight and continuing into much of Friday. Sustained winds of 35 to 40 mph with wind gusts of up to 60 mph are possible across these islands. Additionally, heavy rainfall with possible flash flooding will be a problem across this region tonight into Friday. Finally, very rough seas of 7 to 14 feet are likely across Barbados and well as across the islands from Guadeloupe southward to Grenada.

All interests in Barbados and from the islands of Guadeloupe southward to Grenada should prepare today for tropical storm conditions which are expected from tonight through a good part of Friday.

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