As of Thursday morning (21) Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services said:

This morning’s analysis shows an area of low pressure now located very near the Yucatan Channel. Satellite imagery showed scattered deeper convection across the entire length of the Yucatan Channel and into western Cuba. The strongest vorticity at the lower-levels were very close to this low pressure system. Wind shear values this morning over this low pressure system are right around 20 to 30 knots, which is barely favorable for any sort of development. Much stronger wind shear on the order of 50 knots currently exists over the Gulf of Mexico, however, these wind shear values are expected to decrease and become more favorable by this weekend.

The overall forecast guidance this morning shows many different possible scenarios for this system to both develop and track.

The latest NAM model guidance forecasts a track towards the northern Gulf of Mexico once we get into Saturday and Sunday. The Canadian model is the strongest in intensity, by far, of all of the latest models. It forecasts a track towards the northern Gulf of Mexico as a probable hurricane by Sunday and then forecasts a turn towards the west and an eventual landfall somewhere between Brownsville and Corpus Christi, Texas on Wednesday of next week as a very strong hurricane.

The UKMET model also forecasts a track towards south Texas as early as Monday.

The latest European model guidance forecasts a track towards the northeastern Gulf of Mexico by Monday and then shows a track across northern Florida as a hurricane right around next Thursday before tracking rapidly northeastward into the Gulf of Maine and Bay of Fundy by next Saturday.

The GFS model guidance also is forecasting the eastern track option, however, its solution is suspect to me as it spits out multiple low pressure centers and doesn’t pull together like I think it will.

The GFS ensemble guidance seems to agree with the UKMET and Canadian models and go the option of south Texas. It should be pointed out that many times the guidance overestimate the strength of upper level troughs and I think this is the case here. Bottom line is that I think this is Texas bound rather than a track across Florida.

Given that, here is my thinking as of this morning:

I want to end by saying that a lot can change with the forecast track of what is likely to be Debby. Right now, based on the data I am looking at, I think this is Texas bound, however, there is a chance that the trough will end up being strong enough to pull it northeastward across northern Florida like the European model is forecasting. Needless to say, it is a very fluid situation and I am keeping very close tabs on it.

For more on this and update go to: www.crownweather.com

Hurricane Chris

Chris has reached hurricane strength with 75 mph winds making it the first hurricane of the 2012 season. It is no threat to land. Chris attained hurricane strength unusually far to the north (41.1°N) for a June storm; only Hurricane One of 1893 was a June hurricane at a more northernly point (44°N) than Chris.

Chris managed to intensify and form an eye-like feature surrounded by intense thunderstorms with very cold tops, despite the fact the storm is over cool waters of 22°C.