Tropical Storm Rafael unleashed heavy rain and powerful gusts on the Leeward Islands on Sunday (14) and could turn into a hurricane by Monday, forecasters said.

With sustained winds of 60 mph, Rafael could get even stronger as it bears down on several islands popular with tourists.

From Weather Underground:

Tropical Storm Rafael is intensifying, but is headed northwards away from the Lesser Antilles Islands, after bringing gusty winds and heavy rains to the islands over the past two days. Three-day rainfall amounts of 2 – 3″ were common over the Leeward Islands, but the winds mostly stayed below tropical storm-force. Here are some of the peak wind gusts from Rafael and rainfall totals from Oct 11 through 10 am EDT October 14:

Barbados, 47 mph, 0.81″

Antigua: 37 mph, 3.66″

Martinique: 30 mph, 3.10″

St. Lucia: 39 mph, 2.07″

St. Martin: 45 mph, 2.56″

Guadaloupe: 36 mph, 2.51″

Dominica: 25 mph, 2.68″

St. Kiits: 34 mph, 3.47″

Satellite loops show that Rafael has gotten much more organized late this morning, with an impressive spiral band with very heavy thunderstorms to the east of the center. Heavy thunderstorms with cold cloud tops are forming over the center, the hallmark of an intensifying tropical storm. The Hurricane Hunters found a central pressure of 997 mb, and winds at their 5,000-foot flight level of 68 mph this morning. Rafael is experiencing a moderate 10 – 20 knots of wind shear.

Forecast for Rafael

Wind shear is expected to remain in the moderate range through Tuesday, which should allow Rafael to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane. Heavy rains will continue over the Leeward Islands today and diminish on Monday. A tropical storm watch has been posted for Bermuda, which is at risk of seeing tropical storm-force winds from Rafael on Tuesday. The 11 am EDT wind probability forecast from NHC gave Bermuda a 40% chance of experiencing tropical storm-force winds between Monday night and Wednesday morning, and a 6% chance of experiencing hurricane-force winds. The models are pretty tightly clustered showing a track for Rafael to the east of Bermuda, which would put the island on the weaker (left front) side of the storm.

For more on TS Rafael and updates go to:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/

TS Rafael poses no threat to the Cayman Islands