By Dr. Jeff Masters From Weather Underground

A tropical wave that residents of the Caribbean definitely need to watch is one that emerged from the coast of Africa on Wednesday. This system was designated 94L by NHC on Thursday evening, and passed through the Cabo Verde Islands Thursday night, bringing thunderstorms and sustained winds of 25 mph.

Satellite images on Friday morning showed that this system had a high amount of spin, but a very limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. The meager heavy thunderstorm activity was due to plenty of dry air, as seen on the latest Saharan Air Layer Analysis.

The 6Z run of the SHIPS model predicted that the atmosphere in front of 94L would have favorable conditions for development, with low wind shear, sea surface temperatures of 28 – 29°C (82 – 84°F), and a mid-level relative humidity near 60%. Dry air will continue to inhibit development over the next two days, though, until 94L can generate enough heavy thunderstorm activity to moisten the atmosphere. The low shear will aid this process.

Recent runs of our three top models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis—the GFS, European and UKMET—have all shown support for development, with several runs depicting the wave developing into a long-track Cape Verdes-type hurricane. The wave is predicted to take a west to west-northwest track over the coming week, and 94L could arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands as a named storm as early as September 14. However, recurvature into the open central Atlantic is also a good possibility. In their 8 am EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave this system 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 20% and 70%, respectively. The next name on the Atlantic list of storms is Humberto.

The other tropical systems and threat areas out there—Tropical Storm Gabrielle, Invest 92L, and a disturbance a few hundred miles northeast of the Leeward Islands—are all no threat to land, and not worthy of discussion at this time.

Please consider supporting a disaster relief charity for Dorian relief, such as the Red Cross,Portlight, or Hurriup!

Bob Henson co-wrote this post.

For more on this story go to: https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Dorian-Makes-Landfall-Cape-Hatteras-North-Carolina-Canada-Next?cm_ven=cat6-widget