by Rob Lightbown Crown Weather Thursday, June 6, 2013 5:46 am

Tropical Storm Andrea Is Strengthening & Will Bring Heavy Rain & Tornadoes To The Florida Peninsula Today; Heavy Rain & Tornadoes Expected On Friday Across Eastern North Carolina & Eastern South Carolina

Andrea has been strengthening over the last several hours as the center of the storm is trying to tuck underneath some of the deeper convection. As of early this morning, Andrea has strengthened to a 60 mph tropical storm with a central pressure of 996 millibars. It is possible that Andrea could strengthen a little more today as Andrea will actually move into a little more of a favorable environment this morning before the combination of strong shear and landfall puts a halt on further strengthening after about early to mid afternoon today. I put a peak intensity at 65 to 70 mph before weakening begins to occur.

It seems likely that Andrea will make landfall right in the Big Bend of the northwest Florida Peninsula just east of Apalachee Bay late this afternoon or this evening. From there, it seems reasonable to me that this storm will track northeastward passing right over Savannah, Georgia around midnight tonight and then tracking across eastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina during Friday.

Rainfall Threat: Heavy rainfall is likely to continue today across the Florida Peninsula with maximum amounts of up to 5 more inches of rain expected across northern Florida. This heavy rainfall will spread into coastal areas of Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina tonight. Heavy rain with amounts of 2 to 3 inches are expected from eastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina on Friday which will spread northward into the Mid-Atlantic states and southern New England on Friday night.

Tornado Threat: Tornadoes will be a threat today across the entire Florida Peninsula and into southern Georgia. The highest threat for tornadoes, however, is expected from Tampa into northwestern Florida, including Cedar Key and Gainesville.

Wind Hazard: Increasing winds with gusts to 50 mph are likely today from Tampa northward through the Big Bend area of Florida. Now, across northern Florida, including Gainesville and even Jacksonville, gusty winds are expected to develop this afternoon with wind gusts to 40 to 45 mph possible from this afternoon through tonight. These gusty winds to tropical storm force will spread northward across coastal sections of Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina tonight and will continue through Friday.

Storm Surge & Marine Hazards: A storm surge of 2 to 4 feet above ground level is expected from Tampa northward to the Big Bend area of Florida, including Apalachee Bay. The most likely timeframe for this storm surge to occur is this afternoon into early this evening. For you mariners, wave heights of 12 to 16 feet are likely along the entire west coast of Florida today, therefore, stay out of the water & do not venture out.

One final thought and observation of past storms in history: In many past years, I have noticed that where June storms tend to make landfall and track are visited later in the season by a much stronger storm. Take for instance 1995: Hurricane Allison made landfall along the Florida Panhandle in June. Later in the season, Hurricane Opal made landfall in almost the same exact location and was obviously a much stronger storm. So, I have some serious concerns now for a stronger storm to impact an area from Apalachicola to Tampa, including the Big Bend area of Florida, later on this Hurricane season.

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