REMNANTS OF CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013
500 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

AFTER FINDING SOMETHING RESEMBLING A CENTER EARLIER TODAY…THE SAME
AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE SPENT SEVERAL HOURS INVESTIGATING
THE STORM AND DETERMINED THAT CHANTAL NO LONGER HAS A CLOSED
CIRCULATION. THE DATA SHOWED A VERY STRONG WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AXIS OF A WAVE…WHICH IS NOW ALONG 73 OR 74 DEGREES WEST
LONGITUDE.

THE REMNANTS ARE STILL ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER AND STRONG WINDS BETWEEN 40 TO 45 KNOTS EAST OF THE WAVE
AXIS. EVEN THOUGH CHANTAL HAS DEGENERATED INTO A WAVE…THE THREAT
OF HEAVY RAINS OVER HISPANIOLA WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO.
THIS WEATHER WILL SPREAD WESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD OVER
JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS SO. BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL MOVING INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS.

GLOBAL MODELS SHOW STRONG WIND SHEAR IN THE AREA OF THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN…CUBA AND FLORIDA WHERE THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL ARE
HEADED. THIS WILL PROBABLY INHIBIT ANY RE-DEVELOPMENT.
NEVERTHELESS…THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR ANY SIGNS OF REDEVELOPMENT…AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER PLANES ARE SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE AGAIN
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO…IF NECESSARY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 16.5N 73.7W 40 KT 45 MPH…REMNANTS OF CHANTAL
12H 11/0600Z…DISSIPATED

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FORECASTER AVILA