TS Ernesto well South but strengthening. Florence now Post-Tropical Remnant Low
11:00 AM EDT Mon Aug 6
Location: 15.8°N 80.5°W
Moving: WNW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 994 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph
BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 1100 AM EDT MON AUG 06 2012 ...ERNESTO STRENGTHENS...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 80.5W ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM ENE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ALLEN...AND HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM NORTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO TULUM. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ALSO ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM NORTH OF TULUM TO CHETUMAL. THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR GRAND CAYMAN. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CHETUMAL TO PUNTA ALLEN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAL...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS * NORTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO TULUM ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER * NORTH OF TULUM TO CANCUN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
Mon Aug 6 11:00 am
T
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 1100 AM EDT MON AUG 06 2012 AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE STORM THIS MORNING FOUND THAT ERNESTO HAS STRENGTHENED AND THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUSLY POSITION. IT IS UNCLEAR AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THIS WAS A RESULT OF A REFORMATION OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KT BASED ON RAIN-ADJUSTED SFMR OBSERVATIONS AND VISUAL ESTIMATES FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTERS. THE VERTICAL SHEAR APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED AND...NOW THAT THE CENTER IS WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MAIN MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION... THERE IS AN INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW SHOWS ERNESTO BECOMING A HURRICANE...AND CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN UP TO LANDFALL. THIS IS IN REASONBALE AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE HWRF MODEL. WITH THE REPOSITIONING OF THE CENTER...THE INITIAL MOTION IS MORE UNCERTAIN AND MY BEST ESTIMATE IS 285/8. ALTHOUGH THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED...THE NUMERICAL TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE RIDGE WILL NOT WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW ERNESTO TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 15.8N 80.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 16.2N 82.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 16.8N 84.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 17.5N 86.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 18.2N 88.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 19.0N 92.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 10/1200Z 19.0N 95.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 11/1200Z 19.0N 98.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062012 1100 AM AST MON AUG 06 2012 ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN ABSENT FOR OVER 12 HOURS NOW...AND ALL THAT REMAINS OF FLORENCE IS AN EXPOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION AND A SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ABOUT 110 MILES WEST OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. CONSEQUENTLY...FLORENCE IS ASSESSED AS A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. A SURROUNDING DRY/STABLE AIR MASS...COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD LEAD TO DISSIPATION IN 5 DAYS OR LESS. THE REMNANT LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD...BUT AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER RATE OF FORWARD MOTION...275/13. DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN SPEED WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS BASED ON THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 16.4N 40.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 16.5N 42.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 07/1200Z 16.9N 46.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 08/0000Z 17.6N 50.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/1200Z 18.5N 54.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 09/1200Z 21.1N 60.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 10/1200Z 24.2N 66.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED
