by Rob Lightbown, Crown Weather, Tuesday, September 4, 2012 5:37 am

Leslie Will Crawl Northward This Week Before Potentially Impacting Bermuda This Weekend; Interests In New England & The Canadian Maritimes Should Monitor Leslie’s Forecast Track

Leslie remains a tropical storm this morning with 65 mph maximum winds. Overall, Leslie is tracking very slowly northward at a forward speed of 3 to 4 mph and there is now a ridge of high pressure that is building to the northeast of the storm. This ridge will cause Leslie to remain on a very slow northward motion through Friday. By this upcoming weekend, a trough of low pressure is forecast to strengthen as it tracks into the Tennessee Valley. This trough will cause Leslie to turn more northwesterly and there is concern for Bermuda, New England and the Canadian Maritimes on how far west Leslie gets before it turns to the north and northeast.

The latest GFS model guidance forecasts that Leslie will significantly impact Bermuda with hurricane conditions by Sunday and then turn north and northeast and possibly affect eastern Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland by Monday and Tuesday of next week.

The European model is further west with the forecast track of Leslie and the Euro model forecasts that Leslie will track to the west of Bermuda, but still brings tropical storm conditions to the island from late Saturday into Sunday. After that, the European model guidance forecasts a north and then northeast turn to the east and southeast of Cape Cod and forecasts that Leslie will directly impact Newfoundland around Tuesday of next week.

I think that there is enough evidence right now to say that the island of Bermuda may be significantly impacted by Leslie this coming weekend. The intensity guidance really ramps up the storm by later this week and the island of Bermuda may be looking at a near direct strike by a Category 2 or Category 3 hurricane starting on Saturday afternoon and continuing into Sunday. Those of you on the island of Bermuda should seriously start thinking about hurricane preparations for late this week and this upcoming weekend.

After that, I think that Leslie will turn north and then northeastward and will more than likely miss a direct hit on New England. With that said, this storm is expected to be quite large in its overall size and tropical storm force winds may impact southeastern New England by about Monday of next week. As for the Canadian Maritimes, it is within the realm of possibility that Leslie may bring hurricane conditions to parts of Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and Newfound by about Tuesday of next week. The overall track of Leslie will need to be monitored very closely and I recommend that residents and vacationers along the coast of New England and the Canadian Maritimes to closely monitor the progress of Leslie.

Large ocean swells are expected to affect much of the US East Coast this week into likely this upcoming weekend. These swells are likely to cause rip currents and very dangerous surf conditions.

Finally, Leslie is not the only potential concern this morning as the long range forecast guidance shows the potential for a tropical system to develop to the west of the Cape Verde Islands by this upcoming weekend and potentially track towards the US East Coast in 9 to 10 days from now. Also, long range guidance shows another system to possibly track at a lower latitude and potentially affect the Lesser Antilles towards the end of next week.

For more on this story and graphics go to:

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557

Footnote from Caribbean360

The timing of Tropical Storm Leslie makes it the second earliest formation of a 12th named storm during the Atlantic hurricane season, one day behind Luis of 1995, which formed on August 31 that year.

An average Atlantic hurricane season is expected to only produce 11 named storms, so Leslie as the 12th named storm has marked the transition into an above-average season 

Experts say the peak of hurricane season will occur in about a week. While predictions had been for an abrupt shutdown to the season by early to mid October with the advent of El Nino, given that El Nino has been very slow to develop, and may never develop at all, the season could see two to four storms between October and November. Should this extended activity occur, this hurricane season could experience as many as 20 storms, despite the relatively short duration of some of the storms that have formed so far.

Already, a small low pressure system has also developed northwest of the Cape Verde Islands which is now Tropical Storm Michael.

Read more: http://www.caribbean360.com/index.php/news/barbados_news/612794.html#ixzz25XHCOFf4