by Rob Lightbown From Crown Weather Services

I wanted to post a quick update on the prospects of tropical development in the western Caribbean sometime between next week and the first week of June. Current surface analysis shows a tropical wave continuing to track westward and is located in the central Caribbean. This tropical wave is expected to reach the southwestern Caribbean sometime on Thursday and this tropical wave will help to increase rainfall across much of the western Caribbean starting around Friday and continuing right through this upcoming weekend and into next week. This tropical wave may also help to get some sort of tropical mischief going in the southwestern Caribbean possibly as early as next week.

Additionally the upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation is still expected to move into the Caribbean by this coming weekend and remain in the Atlantic through the first few days of June. It is fully expected that this area of upward moving air will lead to enhanced rainfall and lowering barometric pressures. This upward MJO pulse can also lead to tropical cyclone development and this is what may occur either next week or the following week in the western Caribbean.

A large area of high pressure is expected to develop across the southern United States and the Gulf of Mexico between May 28th and June 5th. This high pressure system would likely reduce wind shear and lead to a favorable environment for tropical cyclone development across the western and northwestern Caribbean. The development of a early season tropical cyclone is quite possible across the western and northwestern Caribbean between May 28th and June 7th.

The latest GFS model guidance continues to forecast tropical development in the northwestern Caribbean during the first week of June and for this system to track northward into the Gulf of Mexico. The Canadian model shows some sort of tropical development just south of Jamaica by next Friday. The European model guidance continues to point to lowering barometric pressures over the western Caribbean next week.

I want to continue to emphasize that the upcoming pattern of a upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation and a weather pattern consisting of high pressure from the eastern and southern United States into the Gulf of Mexico produces a fairly high chance of tropical cyclone development in the western Caribbean between May 28th and June 5th. Any tropical cyclone that does form has a good shot of tracking northward to either near the Bahamas or into the Gulf of Mexico.

I will continue to monitor the possibility of western Caribbean tropical development for possibly as early as next week and will continue to have frequent updates.